The final report of the second phase of the Land Use Review has been published by the Department of Climate, Energy and Environment. It models potential pathways for Ireland to reach climate neutrality by 2050, which suggests large potential drops in livestock numbers, dairy production and very ambitious goals for forestry.

The report, and the accompanying press release, make clear that it is not an articulation of Government policy in relation to land use. However, the report does outline the scope of changes which would be needed to reach Ireland’s climate targets.

Over 321 pages, it outlines the economic, climate and social commitments already made by Government, including increasing the value of agri-food exports to €21bn by 2030, achieving climate neutrality by 2050, while ensure that local communities remain vibrant. It says that delivering on all objectives and commitments is possible but requires extensive changes in land use and management practice.

ADVERTISEMENT

It says that Ireland is not currently on track to meet many of the commitments under socioeconomic, climate, biodiversity, water quality or air quality objectives. It notes that the current cost of non-compliance with greenhouse gas emissions targets by 2030 could be as high as €26bn.

Delivering on the multiple objectives requires considerable land use change, with the report warning that the current pace of change is limited and could be out-paced by increasingly volatile markets and climate, risking an entrenchment of poor socioeconomic, environmental and economic outcomes. The analysis in the report shows that a business-as-usual approach “would fall far short of climate neutrality and other environmental and social goals”.

The four alternatives to business-as-usual are listed as:

  • Sustainable intensification: this would involve maintaining or increasing the value of output through the exploitation of advancements in technology to maximise productivity per head and per hectare farmed. This would lead to a potential drop in cattle numbers by 35%.
  • Cattle plus nature: this would particularly recognise the need to protect nature and involves multifunctional land use based on extensive cattle systems that deliver multiple ecosystem services. This would lead to a potential drop in milk production by 58%.

  • Protein diversification: this would involve increased livestock productivity in response to technological advancement, alongside an expansion in pig and poultry production, plant proteins, and grass-protein biorefineries to diversify farm income streams and capture value from the growing market in alternative protein. This would lead to a drop in cattle numbers by 47%.

  • Bioeconomy: in addition to protein diversification options outlined above, this indicative pathway would involve increased production of bioenergy crops. It could lead to 32.1TWh of bioenergy output per year.

    • One of the outstanding targets in the report is the ambition for afforestation. Currently Ireland is planting around 2,000ha of new forestry per year, a rate which would lead to juts over 900,000ha of forestry in Ireland by 2100. Government policy is for 8,000ha per year, which suggests forestry cover of 1.37m ha by the end of the century.

    The report suggests a “high ambition” scenario for afforestation of 16,000ha per year until 2030 and then 25,000ha per year from 2031 to 2080, which would lead to 2.3m ha of forestry by 2100, equivalent to around 30% of the land area of the country.

    To put that 25,000ha ambition in context, that is equal to the total afforestation achieved in Ireland over the last nine years combined.

    Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon noted, on the publication of the report, that: “Land is one of our greatest yet finite resources. Farmers, as stewards of the land, set out daily to deliver for us all in terms of food production and wider ecosystem services; they know best the importance of multi-functional land use. This is evidenced through ACRES Cooperation and other best in class examples documented in the report.”