New research has shown that a total of approximately 815,000 acres of sheep and beef farms in the country have been sold for afforestation since January 2017, according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand.

Beef + Lamb New Zealand has been monitoring whole-farm sales for conversion to forestry for several years.

This new analysis carried out by Orme & Associates has found that an additional 74,000 acres of whole sheep and beef farms have been confirmed as sold for forestry since the previous research was released in mid-2025.

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About 38,000 acres of sheep and beef farms were sold for forestry in 2025, however this figure is expected to rise as further sales are still to be confirmed through the Overseas Investment Office.

“While we are pleased that total sales have slowed from the height of conversions to forestry in 2021 and 2022 (when almost 64,000 hectares were sold each year), we remain concerned that too much is still going to occur,” Kate Acland chair of Beef + Lamb New Zealand commented.

Risk

The report indicates that 27,000 hectares of sheep and beef land could still be converted into forestry each year under the new restrictions introduced.

Prior to 2018, when it was signalled that the cap on the carbon price would be lifted, only 7,000 hectares or less was converted into forestry on average each year.

“27,000 hectares a year, combined with how much has already happened, would see New Zealand lose a million hectares of productive pastoral land by 2050, which is unsustainable for our sector, our rural communities and the country,” Acland said.

“While the restrictions introduced in 2025 are welcomed, we are concerned they do not go far enough and we will be keeping a close eye on ongoing levels of afforestation.

“Beef + Lamb New Zealand is not anti-forestry. We strongly support the integration of trees within farms. Forestry presents an important and well-established diversification opportunity for farmers. Farmers know their land and can plant the right trees in the right places, without affecting overall levels of production.”

Analysis carried out by Business and Economic Research found that sheep and beef farms create employment and exports on a continuous, annual basis. On the other hand, forestry mainly generates both employment and export revenue at harvest, around 25 to 30 years after planting.

In 2025, New Zealand’s red meat sector generated NZ$17.5 billion (4%) in GDP and supported a total of 120,580 jobs, or 5% of total employment in New Zealand.

Converting productive farms to forestry makes it harder for rural communities to retain people and skills, in turn reducing local spending, school numbers, rural services and future food-producing capacity, Beef + Lamb New Zealand said.

It estimates that more than two million stock units have been lost to afforestation since 2017.