After 25 years in the making, Friday 9 January could be the day that the European Commission finally gets the controversial trade deal across the line.

It was always going to come down to the 11th hour – and hours out from the meeting about to take place on Friday morning there is still some uncertainty around what way some countries will vote. Romania, which represents 4.2% of the EU population, has been on the fence in the last few months. Sources from Brussels are citing it as still undecided ahead of the vote.

It would join France (15.2%), Ireland (1.2%), Hungary (2.1%), Austria (2%) and Poland (8.1%) to vote no against the deal.

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This would bring the total blocking minority to 32.8% should Romania vote down the deal.

The fact that Belgium may abstain from the vote could mean the blocking minority becomes very close.

A blocking minority of 35% of the EU’s population is required to block the deal at Friday’s meeting. Italy kicked to touch on the pre-Christmas heads of state vote on Mercosur on Brussels.

With 13% of the EU population, Italy holds the balance of power in the vote and should it vote no, the deal will be blocked and confined to the annals of history.

Frantic negotiations

It’s widely anticipated that it will vote yes though, after frantic negotiations between Ursula von der Leyen and Italian prime minister Georgia Meloni took place over the last three weeks to get Italy back on side and get the deal across the line.

Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal and the Scandinavian countries are all also in the yes camp.

Should the deal be voted through, it’s expected that Commission president von der Leyen will fly to Paraguay next week to ceremonially sign off on the deal.

The deal has to cross one more hurdle in the European Parliament – with that vote expected to take place within the next two weeks.

The Friday 9 January vote will be an indication of what way each country's MEPs will vote, but there are reports of some splits starting to appear within political parties.

The 9 January EU vote also comes ahead of an Independent Ireland-organised protest against the Mercosur trade deal, which is expected to attract over 10,000 farmers, one of the largest farmer protests ever to take place in the country.

Farmer protests have also taken place in Italy and France in recent days, amid rising unrest across Europe.

For more on Mercosur, click here.