A shortage of sucklers on the prairies of North America could underpin Irish beef and live cattle prices for the next three to four years, a leading meat sector analyst has predicted.

Rupert Claxton, meat and livestock director with consultancy firm Gira, said beef supplies in the US remained tight and expensive, and this was dictating market dynamics right across the developed world.

While Claxton noted that Irish weanling and store cattle prices have eased back from the record levels reached in 2025 – and could potentially ease back further – he said any price reductions would not be significant.

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Irish weanling prices hit a high last year of around €7/kg for top quality bulls for export, but have dropped back this year to around €6-6.30/kg.

A continuing drought in the US and a poor planting season for crops had delayed any recovery in the country’s beef breeding herd from its current “four-year low”, Claxton told the Irish Farmers Journal.

“That’s not conducive to anybody restocking in the US suckler herd.

“And US beef supplies are 80% suckler driven,” he said.

“So, there is no recovery in American beef supplies in the next three years, and it’s probably four [years] before you really start to see a difference,” Claxton maintained.

“So, the nub of it sits with the US market at the moment. The US is tight and they are prepared to pay for beef,” he explained.

The shortage of beef in America has been accentuated and exacerbated by tight supplies across the globe.

Although Australian beef exports were up this year, and Brazilian supplies were strong, Claxton predicted that volumes from both countries will start to tail off again next year.

“Australian beef supply was up a little bit this year, which is contrary to where we thought it would be at the beginning of the year, but it was really pulled by those phenomenal global prices,” he said.

“And at the same time, the Brazilian production is beginning to come down. It’s that natural cattle cycle turning, and we think it will turn in Australia next year.”

How will these developments impact Irish and European cattle and beef prices?

“I think we’ve got localised issues on the back of the Iran War in Europe. We might see the consumer being a bit tighter about what they will buy, but the reality is we don’t have that much beef on the European market,” he said.

Claxton reiterated his contention, made at Bord Bia’s meat market seminar earlier this year, that Irish beef and cattle prices would come back from the record levels seen in 2025 – but not significantly.

“I think there has been a little bit of a change in [factories’] mentality there this year,” Claxton claimed.

“The factories are not bidding to keep their capacity full. Last year they were desperate for animals,” he said.

“I think that’s why you’ve seen the price soften a bit, and it might come back a bit further. And obviously that will carry back along the supply chain and we will see suckler prices soften,” he added.

“The reality is that they [suckler prices] are just a little bit too strong for the market at the moment,” Claxton contended.