The impact that the radical shakeup of farm income support schemes planned by the European Commission over the coming years would have on different categories of farmers remains “unclear and unpredictable”.

That was the verdict of the European Court of Auditors (ECA), the body responsible for accounting for the spending of EU funds and for keeping EU policymakers informed of the impact of their policy revamps.

The ECA noted that such is the degree of reform in the Commission’s plans that it is difficult to compare even total EU funding for the last CAP and that which will be allocated for the new one when it kicks in from 2028, a move it said creates unpredictability for farmers.

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The auditors’ opinion on the Commission’s post-2027 CAP proposals states that the flexibility that is on the table for member states for replacing BISS, with a new degressive area-based income support scheme makes it difficult to assess the impact the changes would have on farm incomes.

However, the move away to differentiate payment rates on the basis of targeting funds to those “most in need” was welcomed by the auditors as addressing a “key issue” it had flagged with the current CAP.

The ECA sounded alarm that the CAP proposals’ allowance for member states to allocate 20% of farm income supports to headage payments risks giving some member states’ farmers an unequal advantage if other member states do not offer their farmers the same.

Its report also warned that greater flexibility given by the Commission to member states to design farm schemes could backfire, saying that the leeway given with eco schemes led to an “increase in irregularities due to administrative errors made by member state authorities”.

It raised further concerns with the flexibility granted to member states to define key CAP terms such as “active farmer” could create an “uneven playing field for farmers” which would have a knock-on impact on fair competition and the functioning of the internal market.