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As pointed out in this weeks’ GrassCheck bulletin, there is significant variation in grass growth across NI at present.
Near drought conditions are apparent in the southeast, while towards the southwest of NI growth has been good. The northwest has been more challenging, not helped by a deluge of rain last weekend.
However, the variations are not just from east to west, but also year to year, and a changing climate seems to mean more extremes of weather.
Farmers in east Co Down are having to adapt to a weather pattern that regularly delivers midsummer growth similar to what they get in winter.
But overall, climate change may actually lead to a longer growing season in NI. And with much of Europe again in the midst of a severe drought, it is valid to question the current direction of policy towards capping production in this part of the world.
The driver for that is principally the UK target for net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. In 2023, we can expect DAERA to come forward with interim targets, including for agriculture.
As can be seen in the Republic of Ireland, this process is divisive, and potentially threatens overall livestock numbers.
In NI, a climate change act is now law, but it is slightly different to the Republic in that it requires all GHGs to get to net zero by 2050 apart from methane, which is not required to be more than 46% lower than in 1990.
What this actually means for NI agriculture is not yet totally clear, but we can expect it to be broadly similar to the pathway set out by the UK Climate Change Committee, which recommended an 82% reduction in overall NI emissions by 2050.
To achieve that would require 46% land use change, with farming effectively concentrated into a smaller area, freeing up land for the likes of forestry and energy crops. The local debate might have died down for now, but the issue hasn’t gone away.
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