EU Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan will launch his proposals for CAP 2020 on Thursday 30 November in Brussels. These take the form of what is described as a “communication” and will outline the general direction of travel for the next CAP.

Various versions of what might be in the communication have been circulating around Brussels over recent weeks. From these, it is clear that the next CAP will be evolutionary, similar to moving from one version of a smart phone to the next, rather than a complete new model. There are no proposals to recouple payments, rather a reference to land-based measures being pivotal to achieving the environmental and climate-related goals of the EU.

Earlier drafts suggested capping payments in the €60,000 to €100,000 range but more recent versions talk about exploring compulsory capping of direct payments, without mentioning a specific amount. It also looks at degressive payments as a means of reducing support for larger farms, or a redistributive payment to provide support to small- and medium-sized farms.

There is no specific reference to targeting full-time farmers rather than part-time, but there is a suggestion that support should be targeted at what is described as genuine farmers.

Greening

As expected, there is a strong environmental theme with the ambition of simplifying and the Greening word is absent from the document. Environmental compliance will be the qualifier to access all aspects of CAP support. Similarly, generational renewal is an ambition of the Commissioner, although the early versions of the communication emphasise the role of member states in encouraging this through taxation.

The biggest issue of all for CAP 2020 will be the budget. The UK departure from the EU leaves a gap in the budget of approximately €10bn, and with the CAP budget representing 38% of the total EU spend, this suggests a deficit of almost €4bn. This and the ambition to reallocate a greater proportion of spend to eastern EU countries, suggests that higher CAP payments from 2020 are unlikely.

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