NOW that the potential banana skins of France and Wales have been dealt with, there are just two hurdles between Ireland and the Grand Slam. First up is a resurgent Scotland in the Aviva this Saturday.

Home advantage in many ways defines this tournament. Removing hapless Italy from the equation, Ireland are the only team to win an away game against the other sides in the first three rounds. That win in Stade De France separates us from the rest.

The Scottish revival has come on the back of two Murrayfield wins against France and England. So of course they are dangerous, we know that, but we shouldn’t forget that Wales filleted them 34-7 in the Millennium Stadium in the first game.

A couple of factors make this game a difficult one for Ireland, not least Scotland’s work rate and energy at the breakdown. They cleaned England out here, getting men to rucks an instant after the tackler, allowing them to contest the ball on their feet and win a number of crucial penalties. That’s an area that Ireland too pride themselves on and so the back row battle will probably decide who wins this clash.

Impressive as the Scots have been in recent weeks, Ireland are still the better team. Joe Schmidt and his coaching staff will have identified the Scottish weaknesses and will seek to inflict a gameplan on them that won’t suit their strengths. That’s the not so secret path to success in international rugby these days.

Luckily for teams like Ireland, New Zealand and England, their squads possess the resources to change things up to exploit a variety of weaknesses.

We saw this in action against Wales for the umpteenth time under Schmidt. Ireland needed to own the ball because of the danger the Welsh backline possessed.

With just 31% possession Wales scored three converted tries and added two penalties. Imagine if they gained anything close to parity in those stakes?

With statistics you can prove most theories and hide plenty. Scotland enjoyed only 44% possession against the English but turned that into a 25-13 win. We are constantly told that Joe Schmidt and his team, like all professional set-ups, devour the information statistics can provide.

Those facts point to Ireland repeating the type of tactical masterclass that ultimately blunted the Welsh again this Saturday.

So as ever, Schmidt must be smart in how and where his side play this game. Defensively Ireland can’t allow the Scots and Stuart Hogg in particular space to attack from deep. As open field runners go, the Scottish full back is a permanent threat and despite being a marked man in many respects he still manages to impact games – as the English found out.

Conor Murray will have to be careful with his kicking where Hogg is concerned. Johnny Sexton will also need to manage the game astutely and ensure touch is found regularly. Like the Welsh, the Scots can live off scraps, we have to make sure to limit those scraps by pinning them deep in their own half as often as possible.

This is where the pack will earn their bread. The Irish should be dominant at line-out and scrum, where they have excelled to date, but must also keep the Scots honest on the fringes of the breakdown. The English showed exactly what can happen when being a little flat here, forewarned is forearmed.

That’s everything that is in Irish control, however, there are a couple of intangibles on the injury front to be factored in.

It would appear this game has come too soon for Sean O’Brien. That’s unfortunate as this is likely to be a game made for the Tullow Tank and his (legal) irascibility would have caused problems for the Scottish back row. Of course we still have the obstinate and very capable Peter O’Mahony on that front, aided and abetted by CJ Stander.

Schmidt will have to go with what he has and in fairness Dan Leavy and Jack Conan have been worthy replacements.

Gary Ringrose should replace the unfortunate Chris Farrell while Tadgh Furlong should also come back in for Andrew Porter. After that it will be as you were.

There is one more intangible and that is perhaps the one that worries me the most, referee Wayne Barnes. He is consistent, strict at the breakdown, but he can also be contrary.

A year ago Ireland suffered what might have been their most disappointing loss under Joe Schmidt in Edinburgh. Since then Scotland have hammered Australia, nearly beat the All-Blacks and put England and France to the sword as well. All at Murrayfield.

They might bring a large following to the Aviva but it won’t be the same as home. Ireland to win. CL

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