The year to date has been relatively positive for sheep markets. There were some weeks where markets were under pressure but, in general, prices received have been positive, with the average price for the year to date recorded at €5.38/kg excluding VAT. This is significantly ahead of 2019 levels but marginally behind the corresponding period in 2018.
The strength of markets in recent weeks has brought more optimism to the sector. Mid-season producers are particularly pleased with the opportunity to get a percentage of lambs drafted at the higher prices, while reduced weather-related costs and a vibrant trade for store lambs is also inserting more optimism.
Lambing date
Reports suggest that some farmers are reassessing their lambing date in light of the improved market performance and are looking to better position their flock to take advantage of potentially higher prices in the first half of 2021. It is therefore not surprising that with breeding on the horizon for early lambing systems, the question on whether this is likely to materialise is being raised by more producers each day.
There is unfortunately no straightforward answer to this question and the experience of recent years provides great strength to this statement. For example, Figure 1 details hogget and lamb prices from 2018 to date. Market performance excelled in 2018, with prices running at their highest level in over a decade.
The number of lambs processed to date in 2020 is running 52,535 head above the corresponding period in 2019
There were firm predictions of this performance being repeated in 2019 on the basis that lamb numbers were tighter and the fact that there was a much lower carryover of hoggets.
However, markets failed to live up to their billing and their performance was considerably weaker than in 2018. Many producers are pointing to the fact that the number of lambs processed to date in 2020 is running 52,535 head above the corresponding period in 2019 as being a good indicator that there may be a lower carryover of hoggets into 2021. The kill in Northern Ireland is similar and is running 23,592 head higher.
But it is still far too early to make any solid prediction in this regard while we must also remember that the spring of 2020 was ideal for lambing and is underpinning anecdotal reports of significantly lower lamb mortality so there is likely to be a significantly higher lamb crop on the ground.
Known variables
We must therefore work with the variables that we can predict with some degree of confidence and use this information as best as we can to influence our decisions. While its influence has waned somewhat in recent years, the first significant factor to shape the trade is generally purchasing for the Easter trade.
This year’s festival fell on 12 April and while it led to increased demand and factory throughput, it had no major bearing on sheep prices.
The Islamic festival of Ramadan began on 23 April in 2020. With supplies depleted, it underpinned a significant increase in sheep throughput and prices paid. This tightness in supply helped to keep a floor under the new-season lamb trade from April to the end of May.
The timeline of 11 days between Easter and Ramadan in 2020 will fall to just eight days in 2021
For those aiming to have lambs fit for sale for the Easter trade, it is worth noting that the festival takes place eight days earlier in 2021 with Easter Sunday falling on 4 April. The timeline of 11 days between Easter and Ramadan in 2020 will fall to just eight days in 2021, with the festival coming forward each year by an average of 11 days and starting in 2021 on 12 April and finishing on 11 May. This change in date annually is due to differences between the Gregorian and Islamic calendars. Farmers wishing to have lambs ready for slaughter at the start of April and targeting a 13- to 14-week period to do so would need to be lambing at the start of January. The early lambing system is vulnerable to higher costs (influenced mainly by weather) and variable returns, but all predictions point to the two religious festivals taking higher volumes of sheepmeat out of the market and helping to underpin price.
February lambing
The vulnerability of early lambing in recent years and variable demand for the Easter trade has led to a high number of producers foregoing aiming to have lambs ready for this market and instead looking to take advantage of a lull in supplies in May and early June. With this approach, timing is everything as prices typically follow a sharp downward curve from mid-June through to August.
Demand is likely to stay strong in May and early June and some producers are hedging their bets by lambing a percentage of ewes in early February.
The current market situation, whereby the seasonal decline in price was halted since late June and farmgate price increased, was also unforeseen. It is being helped by the coronavirus pandemic boosting retail sales of sheepmeat, along with lower volumes of British and New Zealand lamb entering the continental EU market.
Cost basis
Co-ordinating breeding dates to have lambs fit for slaughter at specific times of the year has merit but only if it fits into your farming system and does not leave you overly exposed to farmgate prices failing to cover higher production costs. For example, there is little point in farmers bringing forward their lambing date significantly if it will only serve to put pressure on facilities, grass supplies and end up with potentially higher mortality and a big feed bill.
Research shows that grass-based production will on average deliver the greatest return.
The best chance of maximising a farm’s return is where the lambing date coincides with normal grass growth on the farm and sufficient grass supplies are available to carry ewes and lambs until grass growth matches grass demand.
If ewes lamb too early, it will increase concentrate costs and labour while if ewes lamb too late and grass supplies get ahead of ewes, it will make grass harder to manage and can depress performance.
It is only you who will be best placed to know your farm’s strength
Of course, it will not suit in some cases for decisions to be influenced by grass supply alone. Addressing cashflow issues or getting a higher number of lambs away before demand increases from competing enterprises on the farm are just two examples of factors to consider. It is only you who will be best placed to know your farm’s strength and select the most suitable breeding and lambing date, taking the above detail into account.
Hedging your bets
A practice that has become more common on some farms in recent years is breeding a small number of sheep to lamb early followed by the main flock a few weeks later.
There are two scenarios typically utilised. Some farmers breed their cull ewes to lamb down earlier. This will allow both ewes and lambs to be drafted off the farm earlier in the year. In early lambing systems, there will be a greater payback from feeding meal to these ewes as they can be weaned early and drafted for slaughter while available feed can then be prioritised for lambs.
The risk with lambing earlier and splitting a flock is extending the overall length of the lambing period, which has several negatives. Synchronised breeding will provide a solution to this but more farmers are voicing concern as to the cost of the system and also the fact that lambing could still be drawn out if there is a high level of repeats.
Alternative
An alternative being utilised is practising the ram effect and where ewes are not being sold as culls, some farmers will mate a higher number of ewes for a shorter period of a few days or for whatever length it takes for the desired number of ewes to be served while allowing for some repeats.
It is likely that New Zealand will continue to fill a low volume of its tariff-free quota, with the Chinese market presenting greater opportunities. It is reasonable to predict this will remain constant in 2021, particularly with African swine fever continuing to drive sheepmeat demand. But external variables, such as whether the coronavirus pandemic will shape markets in the long-term or the implications of trade negotiations between Britain and the EU, are harder to forecast.
Throughput this week will be at the highest level in 2020
In contrast, it can be predicted with a fair degree of confidence that the Islamic festival of Eid al-Adha will underpin demand for higher volumes of sheepmeat in mid-July. Similar to Ramadan, the festival date moves forward each year. Throughput this week will be at the highest level in 2020, with the festival starting on Thursday 30 July and finishing on Monday 3 August. In 2021, the festival will take place from Monday 19 July to Friday 23 July.
Some farmers are reassessing their lambing date due to improved market performance.The performance of sheepmeat markets for the first few months of the year is hard to predict. Easter, Ramadan and Eid al-Adha will increase demand but are less reliable in increasing prices.The optimum breeding and lambing date should take into account typical grass supplies and aspects such as labour availability, facilities and your target market. The breeding date should reflect the farm’s strengths.
The year to date has been relatively positive for sheep markets. There were some weeks where markets were under pressure but, in general, prices received have been positive, with the average price for the year to date recorded at €5.38/kg excluding VAT. This is significantly ahead of 2019 levels but marginally behind the corresponding period in 2018.
The strength of markets in recent weeks has brought more optimism to the sector. Mid-season producers are particularly pleased with the opportunity to get a percentage of lambs drafted at the higher prices, while reduced weather-related costs and a vibrant trade for store lambs is also inserting more optimism.
Lambing date
Reports suggest that some farmers are reassessing their lambing date in light of the improved market performance and are looking to better position their flock to take advantage of potentially higher prices in the first half of 2021. It is therefore not surprising that with breeding on the horizon for early lambing systems, the question on whether this is likely to materialise is being raised by more producers each day.
There is unfortunately no straightforward answer to this question and the experience of recent years provides great strength to this statement. For example, Figure 1 details hogget and lamb prices from 2018 to date. Market performance excelled in 2018, with prices running at their highest level in over a decade.
The number of lambs processed to date in 2020 is running 52,535 head above the corresponding period in 2019
There were firm predictions of this performance being repeated in 2019 on the basis that lamb numbers were tighter and the fact that there was a much lower carryover of hoggets.
However, markets failed to live up to their billing and their performance was considerably weaker than in 2018. Many producers are pointing to the fact that the number of lambs processed to date in 2020 is running 52,535 head above the corresponding period in 2019 as being a good indicator that there may be a lower carryover of hoggets into 2021. The kill in Northern Ireland is similar and is running 23,592 head higher.
But it is still far too early to make any solid prediction in this regard while we must also remember that the spring of 2020 was ideal for lambing and is underpinning anecdotal reports of significantly lower lamb mortality so there is likely to be a significantly higher lamb crop on the ground.
Known variables
We must therefore work with the variables that we can predict with some degree of confidence and use this information as best as we can to influence our decisions. While its influence has waned somewhat in recent years, the first significant factor to shape the trade is generally purchasing for the Easter trade.
This year’s festival fell on 12 April and while it led to increased demand and factory throughput, it had no major bearing on sheep prices.
The Islamic festival of Ramadan began on 23 April in 2020. With supplies depleted, it underpinned a significant increase in sheep throughput and prices paid. This tightness in supply helped to keep a floor under the new-season lamb trade from April to the end of May.
The timeline of 11 days between Easter and Ramadan in 2020 will fall to just eight days in 2021
For those aiming to have lambs fit for sale for the Easter trade, it is worth noting that the festival takes place eight days earlier in 2021 with Easter Sunday falling on 4 April. The timeline of 11 days between Easter and Ramadan in 2020 will fall to just eight days in 2021, with the festival coming forward each year by an average of 11 days and starting in 2021 on 12 April and finishing on 11 May. This change in date annually is due to differences between the Gregorian and Islamic calendars. Farmers wishing to have lambs ready for slaughter at the start of April and targeting a 13- to 14-week period to do so would need to be lambing at the start of January. The early lambing system is vulnerable to higher costs (influenced mainly by weather) and variable returns, but all predictions point to the two religious festivals taking higher volumes of sheepmeat out of the market and helping to underpin price.
February lambing
The vulnerability of early lambing in recent years and variable demand for the Easter trade has led to a high number of producers foregoing aiming to have lambs ready for this market and instead looking to take advantage of a lull in supplies in May and early June. With this approach, timing is everything as prices typically follow a sharp downward curve from mid-June through to August.
Demand is likely to stay strong in May and early June and some producers are hedging their bets by lambing a percentage of ewes in early February.
The current market situation, whereby the seasonal decline in price was halted since late June and farmgate price increased, was also unforeseen. It is being helped by the coronavirus pandemic boosting retail sales of sheepmeat, along with lower volumes of British and New Zealand lamb entering the continental EU market.
Cost basis
Co-ordinating breeding dates to have lambs fit for slaughter at specific times of the year has merit but only if it fits into your farming system and does not leave you overly exposed to farmgate prices failing to cover higher production costs. For example, there is little point in farmers bringing forward their lambing date significantly if it will only serve to put pressure on facilities, grass supplies and end up with potentially higher mortality and a big feed bill.
Research shows that grass-based production will on average deliver the greatest return.
The best chance of maximising a farm’s return is where the lambing date coincides with normal grass growth on the farm and sufficient grass supplies are available to carry ewes and lambs until grass growth matches grass demand.
If ewes lamb too early, it will increase concentrate costs and labour while if ewes lamb too late and grass supplies get ahead of ewes, it will make grass harder to manage and can depress performance.
It is only you who will be best placed to know your farm’s strength
Of course, it will not suit in some cases for decisions to be influenced by grass supply alone. Addressing cashflow issues or getting a higher number of lambs away before demand increases from competing enterprises on the farm are just two examples of factors to consider. It is only you who will be best placed to know your farm’s strength and select the most suitable breeding and lambing date, taking the above detail into account.
Hedging your bets
A practice that has become more common on some farms in recent years is breeding a small number of sheep to lamb early followed by the main flock a few weeks later.
There are two scenarios typically utilised. Some farmers breed their cull ewes to lamb down earlier. This will allow both ewes and lambs to be drafted off the farm earlier in the year. In early lambing systems, there will be a greater payback from feeding meal to these ewes as they can be weaned early and drafted for slaughter while available feed can then be prioritised for lambs.
The risk with lambing earlier and splitting a flock is extending the overall length of the lambing period, which has several negatives. Synchronised breeding will provide a solution to this but more farmers are voicing concern as to the cost of the system and also the fact that lambing could still be drawn out if there is a high level of repeats.
Alternative
An alternative being utilised is practising the ram effect and where ewes are not being sold as culls, some farmers will mate a higher number of ewes for a shorter period of a few days or for whatever length it takes for the desired number of ewes to be served while allowing for some repeats.
It is likely that New Zealand will continue to fill a low volume of its tariff-free quota, with the Chinese market presenting greater opportunities. It is reasonable to predict this will remain constant in 2021, particularly with African swine fever continuing to drive sheepmeat demand. But external variables, such as whether the coronavirus pandemic will shape markets in the long-term or the implications of trade negotiations between Britain and the EU, are harder to forecast.
Throughput this week will be at the highest level in 2020
In contrast, it can be predicted with a fair degree of confidence that the Islamic festival of Eid al-Adha will underpin demand for higher volumes of sheepmeat in mid-July. Similar to Ramadan, the festival date moves forward each year. Throughput this week will be at the highest level in 2020, with the festival starting on Thursday 30 July and finishing on Monday 3 August. In 2021, the festival will take place from Monday 19 July to Friday 23 July.
Some farmers are reassessing their lambing date due to improved market performance.The performance of sheepmeat markets for the first few months of the year is hard to predict. Easter, Ramadan and Eid al-Adha will increase demand but are less reliable in increasing prices.The optimum breeding and lambing date should take into account typical grass supplies and aspects such as labour availability, facilities and your target market. The breeding date should reflect the farm’s strengths. 
This is a subscriber-only article
SHARING OPTIONS: