Analysis of the 2012 National Sheep and Goat Census shows breeding ewe numbers over 12 months of age increased by 5% or 117,990 head. The census, analysed by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, shows breeding ewe numbers increased from 2.35m in December 2011 to 2.47m in December 2012.

The rise is responsible for total sheep numbers increasing from 3,480,691 head in December 2011 to 3,579,219 in December 2012.

The latest lift in the sheep flock represents the third year that sheep numbers have increased after they reached their lowest point for the last two decades in December 2009. As shown in Figure 3, sheep numbers have recovered to a similar level as recorded in December 2006.

2011 confidence lingering through

The extra confidence generated by stronger sheep market conditions in 2011 continued to have a positive effect on growing the breeding ewe flock. For the December 2011 sheep census, there was an increase of 203,102 sheep in the category ‘other sheep’, which includes ewe lambs and fattening lambs less than 12 months of age.

It was predicted at the time that a high percentage of this increase was due to higher numbers of replacement ewe lambs being retained and bred. Unlike this year, above normal levels of grass growth was also said to be contributing to higher retention rates of younger animals. Both of these predictions were realised; hogget throughput increased in spring 2012 and breeding ewe numbers increased by 117,990 head in the December 2012 census.

Unfortunately, the higher confidence levels and optimism in expanding flock numbers witnessed in 2011 were not matched to the same degree in 2012.

Reduced market returns and increased production costs, on the back of very poor weather for the latter half of 2012, led to lower levels of optimism. Predictions at the end of 2012 pointed towards significantly lower numbers of ewe lambs retained and carried over the winter as breeding replacements.

The total number of sheep in the ‘other sheep’ category has held fairly steady, falling by 23,419 head to a total of 1,025,241. However, it is thought that this is being bolstered by a carryover of store and finished lambs rather than breeding stock. This assumption looks very realistic when you take into account more live lambs on the ground in 2012 due to favourable lambing conditions and higher numbers of lambs bred from yearling ewe hoggets carried over the winter. This translated into higher volumes of hoggets available for processing with sheep throughput for the first four months of 2013 increasing by about 130,000 hoggets and lambs.

Donegal leading ewe increase

Figure 1 details the number of breeding ewes aged over 12 months of age in each county as of December 2012 and the percentage change compared with December 2011. The size of each circle denotes the number of sheep. Donegal leads the field for the country with the greatest number of ewes at 310,305 ewes, and the largest lift in ewe numbers (+21,345).

Galway, Mayo and Wicklow also experienced very significant increases of 11,544, 11,521 and 10,125 ewes, respectively. Limerick (14,427), Clare (15,395) and Dublin (16,613) have the lowest number of ewes. Clare and Laois were the only counties that experienced a reduction in ewe numbers although these were negligible decreases.

Marginal rise

in flockowners

The number of flockowners farming sheep also increased from 33,766 in December 2011 to 34,048 in December 2012.

The rise of 282 new flockowners is well below the 1,600 new flockowners recorded in 2011 but, nevertheless, is a positive trend.

Figure 2 shows a county-by-county breakdown of flockowners and the difference in total sheep numbers to December 2011. As can be seen, Donegal, Mayo and Galway have by far the greatest number of flockowners at 5,423, 4,498 and 4,106 flockowners, respectively.

The next closest counties are Kerry with 2,292 flockowners, Cork with 1,758 and Roscommon with 1,747.

It is not surprising to see these counties dominate the number of flockowners and sheep numbers given the size of the counties and the marginal nature of land with significant areas of hill and mountain grazing.

Roscommon is unique to this trend but this is a county that has traditionally been recognised for its strong sheep production. Dublin and Limerick have the lowest number of flocks at just 188 and 245 flocks, respectively.

Flock size expanding

The average flock size rose from 103 sheep per flock in December 2011 to 105 in 2012. The counties highlighted for the largest number of flocks can also be emphasised for being at the lower end of the scale for average flock size, while counties with good quality farmland have the largest flocks, on average. This is also shown in Figure 2. Wicklow has the highest average flock size of 184 sheep and is followed by Kildare (160), Carlow (155) and Waterford (150).

Clare has by far the lowest average flock size at just 39 sheep. The next closest is Cavan with an average flock size of 73 sheep.

Figure 4 shows the percentage and number of flocks within certain flock sizes. Ireland’s flockowners continue to be dominated by those farming small numbers of sheep. There are 42.3% or 14,393 farms with sheep numbers of less than 50 head, while there was a further 24.2%, or 8,232, farmers possessing between 51 and 100 sheep in December 2012.

Only 2%, or 669 flockowners, had greater than 500 sheep in December 2012.

Outlook for 2013

The last eight to 10 months have been very telling for flockowners.

Poor weather and the resultant increase in production costs have been the greatest difficulties for the majority of flockowners. Both early lamb producers and mid-season flocks have been hit financially and unless weather conditions improve fast, costs will continue to accumulate.

The lamb crop in 2013 is also likely to be down on the levels achieved for the last two years with higher mortality levels experienced on some farms this spring due to a combination of weather and poor ewe condition (feed issues).

Schmallenberg has also been a big concern for early lamb producers (many of whom also experienced lower litter sizes) with those in the south east particularly affected. Liver fluke is the standout health concern for ewes with farmers and industry personnel reporting very significant mortality rates in ewes and hoggets.

The outcome of impending CAP reform talks can also not be forgotten. If weather and policy changes go against flockowners, it is easy to see a situation developing of breeding ewe numbers reverting into decline.

You could be forgiven for thinking it is all doom and gloom for flockowners. There is no arguing that flockowners are currently experiencing difficult farming conditions but it is still early days to gauge just what effect the factors discussed above could have on sheep numbers for 2013/2014.

The market outlook, at present, looks good with fewer lambs on the ground in Ireland and Britain. If markets perform satisfactorily for the remainder of the year and grass growth improves, confidence in sheep enterprises could recover quickly.

Goat Census

Goat herds increase but total numbers fall

Analysis of the 2012 goat census shows the number of goat herds increasing from 409 in December 2011 to 452 in December 2012.

While the number of herds increased, the total number of goats fell from 8,922 in December 2011 to 8,480 in December 2012.

The reduction, despite an increase in herds, stems from a number of very large herds reducing their herds or exiting the enterprise.

As can be seen in Table 1, there were six herds with greater than 300 goats in December 2011 compared with four in December 2012, leading to an overall reduction of 875 goats in that herd size category.

Similarly, the numbers of herds with between 201 and 300 goats fell from 11 to nine herds with total goat numbers in this category dropping 210 head. The new herds coming on stream were mainly in the one to five herd size category and were not in a position to compensate for the reduction in larger herds.

Most herds in Cork

Cork tops the list for the number of goat herds in any particular county with 79 herds. However, most of these are small herds and total only 813 goats.

Meath tops the list for the most goats with 977 in 10 herds.

Westmeath is next with 832 goats in nine herds. It must be pointed out, however, that these stats can change very quickly with large goat milking herds having the potential to move a county well up the list in terms of total goat numbers.