AHDB is forecasting a small year on year reduction of 400,000 lambs to 16.6m due to a decline in the size of the breeding flock. As domestic production declines and imports remain low sheepmeat supply will be tight in the UK. However this assumes that the European market will be available for the extra lambs produced in the second half of the year. AHDB are forecasting that consumption will continue its long term decline.

Australia fires

The severe wildfires currently affecting Australia could affect global supply of sheepmeat. Whilst most sheep are further inland than many of the fires, there are still significant numbers in the areas affected. Early estimates suggest that over a quarter of sheep in Australia are kept in areas that have either been significantly or partially impacted. Similarly, around a fifth of the national cattle population is in areas that have had some fires. These areas with significant fires could account for over 10 million cattle and sheep, although that is not to say at all, that this many animals have been lost.

Any fall in Australian lamb numbers would not have a direct impact on the UK as they have limited direct access. However it would tighten supply to China and pull in more New Zealand product which could limit imports to the UK. This is at a time when UK supply is at its lowest and demand peaks for legs at Easter.