The second raft of technical papers were published by the UK Government this week and again they shine a light on what a no-deal Brexit will look like.

With 58 technical notes now published, it is becoming clear that the UK leaving the EU without a comprehensive agreement will cause huge inconvenience and cost.

If the EU appears bureaucratic, it is nothing to what it will be if no deal is secured. There are also reports that the worst news is being kept to the last and the technical note on energy will be watched with interest as electricity is very much an all-island issue for Ireland, leaving the north very exposed.

Better mood

Despite the hard line taken by the EU, there is still considerable optimism that a deal will be secured. British industry is becoming increasingly vocal about the need for a deal.

Also, despite her apparent weakness, nobody has stepped forward to challenge the Prime Minister yet in a leadership contest.

Despite the hard line taken by the EU, there is still considerable optimism that a deal will be secured

There are up to 80 hardcore opponents of a close deal with Brussels, including former minsters Boris Johnson and David Davis, but despite vocal opposition to the British white paper on future relations, they haven’t directly challenged Teresa May in a leadership contest.

Party conference season

If the Prime Minister can get past the Conservative party conference which starts on the last day of this month, there is a fair chance she will see the Brexit process through.

One reason her opponents aren’t mounting a challenge is that they realise that could probably do no better.

Despite the bravado about the UK walking away, comments like those by the head of the Bank of England that there would be severe implications for the economy and house prices could drop 35%, suggest a deal is necessary.

Need for a deal

The combination of this with the technical notes and increasing volume from British industry means the UK is more pushing towards a deal than against it. The EU negotiators will have figured this out and while the tone is more conciliatory, there appears no movement on the EU principles of not separating the four freedoms of people, goods, services and capital to accommodate the UK.

As we move towards the endgame, we will learn more about how anxious the UK is for a deal. Most business and economic opinion is roundly opposed to Brexit and they are pushing hard for the closest relationship with the EU possible after Brexit. Most studies also show that the economic implications for the EU26 are very manageable with the exception of Ireland.

Creative language

With the EU appearing to hold more aces, and increasing evidence through the publication of the technical notes that it will be chaos in the UK without a deal, the probability of an arrangement being arrived at increases.

In order to close a deal, we can expect very imaginative use of language that allows both the EU and UK emerge with their red lines intact. Otherwise, the chaos outlined in the technical notes is the alternative.

Irish farmers will be hoping that the deal is concluded maintaining as much of the status quo as possible.