Christmas is behind us, so it’s time to look to 2017 and the year ahead. This weekend all four provinces have crucial European Champions Cup ties and by Sunday evening three of them could have one foot in the quarter-finals.

Twelve months ago Leinster propped up their pool, Munster ended up third and only Ulster threatened the knockout stages – finishing within a point of progressing as one of the three best runners-up. Connacht hadn’t even qualified for the senior tournament.

For professional clubs this is some turnaround in such a short space of time.

The Irish quartet are back up there in Europe and realistically, both Leinster and Munster have legitimate aspirations of reclaiming the holy grail of European club rugby.

First up this weekend are Leinster, who, with a bonus point victory over Montpellier at the RDS will move on to 21 points and a certain spot in the knockout phase.

With a number of key players set to return to the Leinster line-up there is no reason why they shouldn’t bag a bonus point.

Of the returning stars, all eyes will be on Johnny Sexton, who will be keen to show some decent form a few weeks out from Scotland in the Six Nations on 4 February.

This is a Lions year don’t forget, and that means players like Sexton, Heaslip, Sean O’Brien, Devon Toner, Robbie Henshaw, Rob Kearney and Gary Ringrose must take every televised chance they have to impress. This game is a Friday night event and that means Warren Gatland will have nothing else to watch that night.

I expect Leinster to guarantee a place in the last eight with a bonus point win.

If all goes to plan they will then travel to Castres the following week in search of at least a losing bonus point, which would give them a home quarter-final and favourable seeding.

What chance they (or Munster) could be playing Connacht in the last eight?

Stay with me here. The men from the west are hurting injury-wise, the timing of which has been awful for them, but they have the luxury of Zebre at home this weekend and five points is surely a certainty here. Leaving aside their injury list, Pat Lam’s side have been playing with much of last season’s historic intensity and this will be plenty for Saturday.

By night’s end Connacht will have 18 points and if Wasps do a job on Toulouse in Coventry later that afternoon, then the French might have little to play for a week later when Connacht go to the south of France in search of, perhaps, only a losing bonus point to reach the quarter-finals.

One equation is for certain. Connacht will have their destiny in their own capable hands when they face into the last weekend. It’s safe to say they would have taken that scenario when the draw was made.

RED MACHINE

Munster are in a completely different place of course. One suspects this European campaign is becoming a crusade for them. It was never going to be that at the start when they were drawn against the best Scotland, France and (almost) England had to offer in their pool. Yet here they are with so much water under the bridge.

Away to Glasgow in Saturday night’s prime time TV encounter, they can wrap up the pool and qualification with a win. Even a losing bonus point will have them in a strong position, but a home quarter-final will probably require a Munster win.

The Warriors are decent this year, well coached by Gregor Townsend and stocked with Scottish internationals.

They may have rolled over in Thomond, but they hammered Leicester at home and also beat Racing 92 in Paris when Ronan O’Gara’s side still had something to play for.

Flying high in the Pro-12, they know this is their biggest game in years if they are to reach a quarter-final for the first time.

At full back, Stuart Hogg is an exceptionally dangerous attacker and is solid under the high ball – so Conor Murray will have to be very accurate in his kicking.

With Scotland in a few weeks in Murrayfield the likes of Peter O’Mahony, Donnacha Ryan and Tommy O’Donnell can catch Joe Schmidt’s eye because half of the Scottish pack will be in opposition. Glasgow’s talisman is their captain, second row Johnny Grey and if Munster blunt him they are halfway there.

Last Saturday Munster put Paris behind them to an extent and did so with the minimum of fuss. This is the type of game that potential European Cup winners grind out a result in. I can see the red machine accomplishing just that.

STILL ALIVE

And then we have Ulster.

Mathematically they can still make the quarter-finals but they need to beat Exeter away on Sunday evening, with a bonus point, inflicting the same on Bordeaux in Ravenhill a week later. They’ll also need a couple of teams to slip up as nineteen points is the most they can achieve.

It’s not beyond them but the order is tall. One mark in their favour is some of their returning stars are getting games under their belts, with Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe close to full fitness.

Those two are try getters – Bowe in particular – and four is the order on both days. Hopefully they can perform in Sandy Park Stadium and get their loyal fans warmed up for Bordeaux the following Saturday, when the pools are played to completion.

These next couple of weeks could well be determined by the odd accidental high tackle and a red card which can fundamentally alter the balance of a rugby game. With the new laws in force, referees are erring on the side of caution, with the player who tackles anywhere remotely near the shoulder running the risk of being sent to the line.

As a result the ‘small’ players will be afforded huge protection for a few weeks until this law embeds properly. I wouldn’t be surprised if some take advantage. Watch for players ‘dipping’ as they hurl themselves at tacklers. It’s human nature, it will happen and home crowds will jump on that bandwagon urging referees to take action. Let’s hope none of the Irish sides suffer unduly this weekend. It is all that stands between us and four wins out of four.