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After last week’s second round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations, the UK chief Brexit negotiator rejected any notion of a change in policy on the UK completing its break with the EU at the end of the year.
Such a response was predictable to a sensitive political issue at a time when the prime minister is incapacitated. Any change on policy around extension of the transition would have to come from the PM himself and it would require a huge reversal of policy for him to make that change.
Need for access to labour
Brexit has long been a huge emotional issue in the UK with the economic debate taking a distant second place. However, the world is very different since the arrival of COVID-19.
It has put a spotlight on the dependence on what are considered low-skilled and low-paid workers, primarily from eastern Europe that are the backbone of the care service, as well as providing ancillary support in the NHS, particularly in maintenance and cleaning.
Brexit has long been a huge emotional issue in the UK with the economic debate taking a distant second place
The virtual shutdown of travel has also put the spotlight on the dependence of farming in the UK for seasonal migrant labour form eastern Europe to harvest the crops.
This had been referred to countless times but it is only when the crop harvest faces ruin that it becomes a real issue. It has also occurred in Ireland with Keelings attracting huge publicity for chartering a flight to bring fruit-pickers in from Bulgaria.
Impossible timeframe for comprehensive deal
The deadline for requesting an extension is less than two months away but that was fixed before COVID-19.
Since the battle to bring it under control has taken all the efforts of the UK and EU governments, it is likely that there will be flexibility found in this if there is a desire.
It is difficult to visualise how full negotiations can be concluded in what looked like an impossibly short space of time and that was before the COVID-19 crisis.
Currently, the UK Government is stretched and while the EU institutions don’t have public health in their remit, EU business is distracted by the need to design a recovery package that reconciles the conflicting views of the wealthy northern EU countries with the poorer southern ones.
Different world from before COVID-19
This all means the dynamic is very different from when the withdrawal agreement was signed off last October and the UK prime minister had a resounding election victory in December, validating his Brexit policy.
It is difficult to visualise how full negotiations can be concluded in what looked like an impossibly short space of time and that was before the COVID-19 crisis
However, the review of COVID-19 in the UK is bound to reflect the huge dependence on migrant labour that wouldn’t meet the criteria for the UK-proposed points-based immigration scheme. In the EU 27, where there was complete solidarity among members on Brexit policy, the divisions that have emerged over COVID-19 won’t necessarily pass quickly.
When the emotion is removed, the reality is that the wider UK economy, as well as the care services, is dependent on relatively low-paid immigrant labour. The value to society of these jobs may be increased by the COVID-19 experience, even if it doesn’t necessarily mean more money for the workers.
Proper agreement
It isn’t a case of starting again as the UK has now left the EU but it should be a case of rationally creating the space where a proper agreement can be negotiated. That agreement has to reflect the fact that the economies of the UK and EU countries are facing an unprecedented economic hit as a result of COVID-19 and the last thing needed is an interference with trade.
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