For a time on Monday this week, it looked like the UK and EU had come to an arrangement that would allow Northern Ireland some form of regulation alignment, give it access to the customs union.

Quickly, the Scottish and Welsh Governments, as well as the Lord Mayor of London, put their hands up to take part in this scheme. By Tuesday, DExEU Secretary David Davis was telling the House of Commons in Westminster that this “alignment” would apply across the UK.

Does it make any difference to farmers?

If a formula can be found that allows Scottish farmers to retain access to EU markets in the way that they have during EU membership, that is the best Brexit outcome of all for farmers.

It would be of no benefit if the Northern Ireland-type arrangement had somehow been accepted for Scotland and other particular regions of the UK. Anything that created a new internal border would be even worse from a trading and business perspective than a barrier between Scotland and the EU 27.

Trade flows

Scotland’s livestock sector export interests lie in beef and sheep, as most domestic production in dairy and pig meat is consumed in the home market. On beef, while a quarter of sales are to the home market, according to QMS estimates, over 68% are to the rest of the UK, with just 6% coming from exports.

Therefore, while Scottish beef producers would want access to all markets to maximise carcase value, if a hard choice was made on economic grounds, trade with the rest of the UK has to take precedence.

With sheep meat the picture is slightly different, but again the rest of the UK is Scotland’s most important market. According to QMS estimates, the value of sales in Scotland is relatively low at £10.5m, which represents 9% of the total value. Sales to the rest of the UK, however, are valued at £65m, which is just under two thirds of all sales.

The sheep sector is the most dependent of the entire Scottish agri food industry on export markets, with an estimated £30.5m of sales exported, which is 26% of the total value of the Scottish sheep meat industry.

Political angle

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson has spoken on the issue making clear that anything that would create a different trading platform for Northern Ireland is unacceptable.

This view seems to have been accepted by DExEU secretary David Davis in the House of Commons on Tuesday, when he indicated that the entire UK could be part of a “regulatory alignment” with the EU.

That outcome would serve Scottish farmers best, as it would protect all existing export channels and also maintain a restriction on access for cheaper imports.

This, of course, may present difficulties if the Government has ambitions to negotiate separate trade deals from the EU.

However there would be little upside, if any, in these for farmers, so a UK-wide arrangement that stays close to the European Union after Brexit is what serves farmers best in Scotland.