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The ruling last Monday by the Commons speaker, John Bercow, appears to have surprised the UK government even though it had been flagged in advance by various luminaries who specialise in these arcane matters.
Theresa May will be spending today (Thursday) at yet another European Council in Brussels, seeking an extension to the UK’s exit date from the European Union. The basis was supposed to be the endorsement of her withdrawal deal by the House of Commons on Tuesday, with a short period of extra time to complete some accompanying legislation which has been neglected.
The neglect, however, includes a failure to read the handbook of parliamentary procedure, which precludes the re-introduction of a proposition, without amendment, which has already been considered. She travels empty-handed in this latest instalment of the Brexit operetta as the humiliation of her minority government continues.
It has even occasioned some sympathy for the DUP, which had been busily seeking concessions in exchange for support in the next “meaningful vote”, now in limbo.
The latest wheeze to get the House of Commons functioning is to “prorogue” parliament altogether. Close it down, perhaps for just an hour or two, and summon the Queen to solemnly inaugurate a new session in which the disbarred business can be re-introduced.
Farcical
More likely is an extension, perhaps a longer one than Mrs May would prefer, and agreement by the speaker to re-admit her withdrawal bill next week. These farcical proceedings must be trying the patience of European leaders, nowadays equipped with fluent English and cable TV, thus enabled to enjoy the soap opera in real time. They could end up with the same intimate knowledge and appreciation of British politics and diplomacy as the Irish, which is not guaranteed to deliver a happy outcome.
With barely a week left to the expiry of the Article 50 notification (precisely 1,000 days have elapsed today since the referendum result), it is hard to be generous about the conduct of British policy. It has been, internally in the UK political system, close to a national nervous breakdown, externally a succession of diplomatic climbdowns which has diminished the UK’s standing in the eyes of key partners.
After David Cameron’s reckless spin-the-bottle resort to a consultative referendum, rather an un-British device, the most damaging element in the descent into crisis has been the insistence, contrary to all expert advice, that Brexit was going to be simple.
It could not possibly be simple, the “easiest trade deal in history”, “could be negotiated over a cup of tea” and all the other idle blather.
Extracting a large and diverse modern economy intact from the deepest free trading zone in the world was always going to be a complex and time-consuming process, not just a single once-off event. The results of this amateurish insistence on the simplicity of the choice to leave have been the absence of any serious preparation before the referendum and persistent time-wasting ever since.
Complications
The Cameron government, despite the closeness of the opinion polls, made no plans for a leave outcome, while the leave campaign at no stage could agree on the form that Brexit should take. Any well-prepared plan for leave would have revealed endless complications: reality has been left to reveal them instead, the failure to plan almost like an unspoken revulsion from the problems that planning would have uncovered.
The European Council will feel that some form of extension must be offered, to provide more time for preparations and in order to avoid the blame that is already being offered round for the mess which British indecision has created.
Should Brexit be subject to a long delay, or even cancelled through revocation or a second referendum, Brexiteers and the tabloid press will choose from an impressive list of suspects which includes Brussels, the Irish Government, the Supreme Court judges who insisted on a role for parliament, the parliament’s speaker and assorted conspiracies of the above.
Torments
An extension could work for Mrs May and deliver eventually a Commons majority for her deal, in which case the UK’s political torments will continue. The deal delivers only a transition or standstill period, during which the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU, and with trading partners outside Europe, must be resolved.
There is no consensus in UK politics about the form which these relationships should take and the May deal envisages a hard form of Brexit, outside the EU’s single market (Northern Ireland aside) and with extensive border controls on trade with its neighbours.
The argument that no form of Brexit brings economic benefits to the UK was not accepted, or did not suffice, for 52% of voters. That does not mean that the argument was mistaken and the negotiations to follow a deal will bring the issues painfully back into focus.
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