International grain prices fell last week due to the publication of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which anticipates a large US maize crop.

The crop was larger than the market expected at 380.9 million tonnes (Mt).

This is up 6.3Mt from the August report when the market expected a rise of 4.9Mt, according to a poll by Reuters.

However, Chicago maize futures (December 21) rose on Friday, suggesting the change was already priced in the AHDB report.

Argentine raise

The USDA also increased the Argentine maize crop by 2.0Mt to 53.0Mt, as the USDA expects farmers to increase the planted area.

Earlier in the week, the Rosario Grains Exchange estimated a 7.3% rise in the planted area from 2020/21.

The USDA also added 5.0Mt to the Chinese maize harvest after good rainfall. The result is bigger global maize supplies and, despite higher demand, a year-on-year rise in end-of-season stocks.

La Niña

However, a longer-term caveat remains on the risk of another La Niña weather event. The US Climate Prediction Centre now pegs the chance at 70% to 80% this winter.


In terms of wheat, another cut to the Canadian crop was more than offset by bigger crops in Australia, India, China and the EU27.

Due to the larger Australian crop, wheat stocks held by major exporters would be bigger than last month, although still the lowest since 2007-08.

Oilseed rape

The USDA also reduced global oilseed production outside of the US by 1.5Mt to 499.8Mt due to lower rapeseed production in the EU and Canada.

However, these falls were partly offset by increases in Australian rapeseed production.

Last week, Australia forecast its 2021/22 canola (rapeseed) production at a record of 5.04Mt, up 11.33% from 2020/21.

Canadian canola stocks totalled 1.77Mt on 31 July 2021 (Statistics Canada). This is down from 7.74Mt in March and 3.44Mt in July 2020, but ahead of trade expectations of 0.90 to 1.50Mt (Reuters).