Michael Beecher, chair of the East Cork Rail Alliance, argued at the local council recently that the railway from Kent station be extended beyond Midleton to serve Youghal and west Waterford.

The Cork suburban system, previously consisting only of the main line from Dublin through Mallow with a single suburban line to Cobh, was augmented in 2009 with the reopening of the section from Cork beyond Glounthane to Midleton.

The pre-existing continuation to Youghal had been closed to passengers in 1963 and unused, except for infrequent freight services, since 1982.

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Improvements at Kent station now permit through-running from Mallow to Cobh serving several intermediate stations along the way and there has been lobbying for further investment in fixed-line public transport, including trams, in Cork and other provincial cities.

Dublin has always had a more extensive suburban rail system as well as the Luas trams, to be augmented with the hugely expensive MetroLink plan, but buses are by far the main mode of public transport in Dublin.

They carry three times the number of passengers using the Dart and Luas combined, and the main concern about MetroLink is that it will take a decade at least, cost numerous billions (there is still no firm cost estimate) and could disappoint when it comes to actual passengers.

The same issue arises with proposed fixed-line rail investments in Cork. Mr Beecher noted the recent increase in population in Youghal – in 1961, when the Republic’s population hit an all-time low, Youghal’s population was just 5,000 and may reach about 9,000 at the next census in 2027.

But this is unremarkable – the rate of increase is in line with the national pattern. What is more problematic is the popular fixation with fixed-line public transport in all parts of the country.

The record with the extension to Midleton should serve as a caution.

Departures

Midleton now has 31 departures per day to Kent, a high level of service taking 23 minutes or so, not to mention almost as many scheduled bus services which go further into the centre but are 10 or 12 minutes slower.

Data is available for patronage at each railway station, most recently for 2024.

The daily number embarking at Midleton on the 31 departures was 1,268, to give an average of 40 per train.

There would be some, but only a few, disembarking at the sole intermediate halt before Glounthane at Carrigtwohill, and Midleton is the end of the line, so would draw some customers from points to the east.

But Midleton has a population of around 15,000 and 40 passengers per train must be judged very disappointing and a caution against extension further east.

Decisions about planning, in particular about the planning of Irish cities, have predictable consequences.

Urban sprawl

If you opt for urban sprawl, as we have done so visibly in Dublin and on a similar scale in Cork, you are not entitled to be surprised if there is high car dependence and road congestion.

Nor should you be optimistic about expensive underground railways like MetroLink delivering a single short line to Dublin Airport, already well-served with frequent buses through the Port Tunnel from central Dublin and from almost every town and city in the country.

Dublin Airport, although you would not know it from the media coverage, has quite a high public transport share, all buses, even relative to European airports that have direct service by rail.

The correct question to ask about MetroLink is not ‘would it be nice to have’. It would indeed be nice if it came free and so would a suburban service to Youghal.

All urban public transport services lose money on operations, especially when there is poor patronage.

Subsidy

Interurban bus services, including CIÉ’s Expressway, do not require operating subsidy for most of their routes, nor do their private competitors, and the roads they use do not have to be built afresh to accommodate them.

It may be necessary to subsidise rural bus services for social reasons, for schoolgoers and those without alternatives, but the serious costs of public transport arise in cities, when huge capital costs have to be incurred for projects like MetroLink.

There is a reluctance in Ireland, most noticeable in Dublin, to acknowledge that the addiction to urban sprawl, which has characterised Irish planning for two generations, has precluded cost-effective transport solutions.

There is rural sprawl too, with town centres hollowed out and weak patronage for local buses.

It is simply not possible to go back to the 1960s, from which point the damage has been done, and build higher density cities instantly where fixed-line systems might justify the colossal expense.

To spend the MetroLink money anyway, perhaps €15bn or €16bn, as if it would purchase a city-wide system, is to fly in the face of engineering reality.