Sugar is a key and perhaps the most extreme example of what the Mercosur agreement actually means for EU primary production.

The sugar regime has represented the triumph of politics over economics.

While the technology of extracting sugar from beet was known about in the late 1700s, it was the Napoleonic wars of the early 1800s coupled with the British blockade preventing Caribbean sugar reaching Europe that kickstarted what was to become a vibrant primarily European industry.

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France, Germany, northern Italy, Denmark, as well as in Soviet times, the Baltic states along the North Sea, all developed thriving sugar beet industries.

Everyone recognised that sugar cane gave cheaper sugar but the goal of self sufficiency at national and then at EU level trumped the concept of comparative advantage in food production. Not any more.

Ever since the French socialist Pascal Lamy changed the basic EU sugar regime in the early 2000s, it has been downhill all the way, with a succession of factory closures, reduced prices to EU farmers and increased imports of cane sugar, with Brazil leading the way.

The Mercosur agreement, which looks certain to be passed, will continue this inexorable trend.

Phelim O’Neill has covered what the deal means on the beef side.

It’s not as extreme as for sugar, but the trend is in the same direction, as the excellent technical briefing by the EU-wide farmers organisation COPA made clear last week.

But at least beef is continuing to attract increasing consumption in the developing world, though most of this demand will be met by the super competitive and growing giant Brazilian industry.

It’s clear we will see more Brazilian steak in Europe and the protection on offer is limited.

The same applies in poultry, where again the more valuable cuts are given preference within the overall import quantities allowed.

The assurance that Europe’s environmental and quality assurance standards are being safeguarded is simply not true.

The example of maize is an excellent one where the herbicide Atrazine, long banned in Europe, is a standard part of South American farmers’ toolkit as of course are GM varieties.

Europe has already gone from being 95% self sufficient in maize 25 years ago to just 75% self sufficiency today and again this will decline, given the new concessions that have been granted in this deal.

From an overall European perspective, it’s easy to see why Europe wants this deal.

More competition

A volatile America and a rapidly more competitive China has up-ended previous positions, but we shouldn’t fool ourselves – farmers are paying the price.

Some higher value products differentiated on quality or provenance grounds may be comparatively unaffected or even gain but we will all need to examine our own farming system, as well as looking at what markets our individual customers have for what we sell them.