It’s now about 10 years since the world had its peak number of births; around 142 million babies were born in the middle years of the last decade. True, the world population continues to grow, but mainly because of longer life expectancy among those living, and of course because those peak birth years will see women continue to give birth in future years, but at a reduced rate. I hadn’t realised that we were living in such a time of fundamental world demographic change until I listened to American Jack Bobo who has had a long career working with the USDA, as well as with a specialist food policy agency.
Fewer babies means less infant formula. Is it a coincidence that Nestlé, the world’s largest food company, has ceased production of infant formula and placed the plant in Askeaton, Co Limerick on the market? But side-by-side with fewer infants, we will continue to see evolving patterns in the consumption of food and where it is produced.
Eroding grain prices
People may well be suffering from Brazil and Mercosur fatigue, but that doesn’t change the fact that Brazil is now a larger exporter of beef than the US and has replaced the US as the main supplier of soya to China as well as becoming the world’s largest producer just a few years ago.
So where do these dramatic changes – not to mention Russia overtaking the EU as the world’s top wheat exporter – lead us to? These production increases have, in reality, continuously eroded world grain prices and given the dominance of grain in producing most of the world’s milk, it’s not surprising that we have seen a fall in milk prices. The key question, of course, is how long will the milk price stay depressed? Will it last as long as there is a surplus of grain? ICMSA president Denis Drennan has called for a European-wide voluntary reduction in milk output, but so far there is no European call for the reintroduction of a milk quota regime but last week in the UK, surplus milk was dumped.
Some of us remember a set-aside policy being operated in Europe and the US to reduce abundant grain supplies. Would such a policy be appropriate now though more animal feed is needed to meet the growing consumption of animal protein from poultry, pigmeat and beef? Perhaps not yet but clearly agricultural policy, especially as regards Europe, needs to be kept under review.
The core problem, of course, is that once consumers have enough food to eat, the value of any extra output is very low unless it is diverted into bioethanol for cars or in the case of milk, manufactured into calf or pig feed.
One further complication is, ironically, climate change and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Some years ago, I gazed in wonder at the excess carbon dioxide from a sugar plant in the east of England being diverted into glasshouses to encouraged the growth of tomatoes. There is no doubt that we are seeing some increased cereal production as a result of increased carbon dioxide levels. This year, the US had its highest maize yields ever. For many, an unexpected result from a warmer world.
Bioethanol plant.
It’s now about 10 years since the world had its peak number of births; around 142 million babies were born in the middle years of the last decade. True, the world population continues to grow, but mainly because of longer life expectancy among those living, and of course because those peak birth years will see women continue to give birth in future years, but at a reduced rate. I hadn’t realised that we were living in such a time of fundamental world demographic change until I listened to American Jack Bobo who has had a long career working with the USDA, as well as with a specialist food policy agency.
Fewer babies means less infant formula. Is it a coincidence that Nestlé, the world’s largest food company, has ceased production of infant formula and placed the plant in Askeaton, Co Limerick on the market? But side-by-side with fewer infants, we will continue to see evolving patterns in the consumption of food and where it is produced.
Eroding grain prices
People may well be suffering from Brazil and Mercosur fatigue, but that doesn’t change the fact that Brazil is now a larger exporter of beef than the US and has replaced the US as the main supplier of soya to China as well as becoming the world’s largest producer just a few years ago.
So where do these dramatic changes – not to mention Russia overtaking the EU as the world’s top wheat exporter – lead us to? These production increases have, in reality, continuously eroded world grain prices and given the dominance of grain in producing most of the world’s milk, it’s not surprising that we have seen a fall in milk prices. The key question, of course, is how long will the milk price stay depressed? Will it last as long as there is a surplus of grain? ICMSA president Denis Drennan has called for a European-wide voluntary reduction in milk output, but so far there is no European call for the reintroduction of a milk quota regime but last week in the UK, surplus milk was dumped.
Some of us remember a set-aside policy being operated in Europe and the US to reduce abundant grain supplies. Would such a policy be appropriate now though more animal feed is needed to meet the growing consumption of animal protein from poultry, pigmeat and beef? Perhaps not yet but clearly agricultural policy, especially as regards Europe, needs to be kept under review.
The core problem, of course, is that once consumers have enough food to eat, the value of any extra output is very low unless it is diverted into bioethanol for cars or in the case of milk, manufactured into calf or pig feed.
One further complication is, ironically, climate change and increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Some years ago, I gazed in wonder at the excess carbon dioxide from a sugar plant in the east of England being diverted into glasshouses to encouraged the growth of tomatoes. There is no doubt that we are seeing some increased cereal production as a result of increased carbon dioxide levels. This year, the US had its highest maize yields ever. For many, an unexpected result from a warmer world.
Bioethanol plant.
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