The EU’s common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was born in 1962 and its core objective was to guarantee food security in the then common market of six countries – and essentially make sure that they could feed themselves in the post-World War II era.

It was also designed to promote productive agricultural activity, to increase the incomes of those working in agriculture, to stabilise markets and manage fluctuations in commodity prices and to ensure that food prices remained affordable for EU citizens.

There have been many iterations of CAP reform since the first one 64 years ago, with a continued decline in support in real terms during that period.

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Most of those years have enjoyed relative world peace, and the focus of CAP shifted from food production to delivering environmental objectives.

While no one can argue about the importance of climate change and reversing biodiversity loss, many will argue that the CAP was not the correct model of achieving these objectives.

What we have been left with is almost like death by 1,000 cuts, with the decline in the number of young people looking at farming as a viable career choice almost at crisis level.

Active farmers

The number of farmers in Ireland has dropped from 140,000 in 2000 to 120,000 in 2025, with the number of active farmers falling well short of 100,000.

Is it time to have a proper debate on what the definition of an active farmer is?

While there have been many items high on the agricultural agenda over the last few months, such as the nitrates derogation, the Mercosur trade deal, Larry Murrin and fuel protests, they are all less significant than the impact that a 22% CAP budget cut will have on Irish farmers.

It is impossible to overstate just how fundamental CAP is to Ireland. Close to €2bn annually is received by Irish farmers and rural communities, with 120,000 beneficiaries across a wide range of sectors.

Some of those wouldn’t be able to farm were it not for CAP, so any cut to the budget is of huge significance to the industry.

Everything else that has made the headlines in the last number of months pales into insignificance compared to a 22% cut to CAP

The vast majority of suckler farmers have the lion’s share of their income coming from CAP payments. Recent analysis by the IFA demonstrates what moving to a €130/ha support payment would mean for different sectors.

The cuts would mean a €7,000 drop in farm income on tillage farms, a €3,336 drop on dairy farms, a €3,341 drop on sheep farms and a €1,448 drop on cattle rearing farms.

Insignificance

Everything else that has made the headlines in the last number of months pales into insignificance compared to a 22% cut to CAP. There isn’t anything more important in Irish agriculture than the makeup of the next CAP budget in the next 12 months.

Beef, sheep and tillage farming are our most vulnerable sectors and will require targeted support if they are to survive. It’s not just about the survival of these farms in the next CAP, it’s the survival of rural Ireland as we know it.

Without supports the good land will move to dairying and the more marginal land will move to forestry – and with that comes an end to rural life as we know it in many parts of the country.

Less farmers in rural Ireland has the knock-on effect of less commercial activity in the village shop, local mart or contractor’s yard.

We have seen very little evidence of consumers willing to pay more for product produced in an environmentally sustainable way, so that means the EU and national governments must step in to support this production instead.

Farm organisations are in a difficult position, particularly the IFA that represents all farming sectors. The larger farm organisations appear to be in broad agreement that supports should be directed towards active farmers and that some form of coupled payment could be applied to make sure the supports are going to farmers who are calving cows, lambing ewes and tilling land.

A comment made by James Hill, a tillage farmer from Wicklow, struck a chord with me this week. He referred to some farmers effectively “forming” as opposed to “farming” – claiming supports for essentially renting land and not keeping any animals or farm in any way – isn’t one that anybody can say is working.

These farmers are able to claim BISS, CRISS, YFS, an organic support payment, and an ACRES payment with very little, if any, farming activity.

Less support

Some very tough decisions will have to be made. A reduced MFF budget will mean some or all farms will receive less support.

Whether that support should be coupled to production or at least some form of farming activity will be a point of contention along the way.

The argument should move away from whether supports should be taken away from farmers, depending on their age or what they do off farm and instead look at ways that support is targeted at farmers who contribute to food production.

The debate will be a divisive one with winners and losers, but this very important debate could decide the future of many Irish family farms.