French president Emmanuel Macron’s comments this week on the safeguards around Mercosur have dealt the resistance to the deal a big blow. Speaking at COP30 in Brazil, he said he was “hopeful” that the trade agreement could be concluded.

President Macron has big problems to deal with back home in France as he faces one of its worst political crises in decades. This is the first big softening of France’s approach to Mercosur and leaves the chances of achieving a blocking minority in the European parliament very slim.

Prior to last week, France had been the most vocal country in opposition to the deal. France has 15% of the EU population, while Ireland has just 1.2%. To achieve a blocking minority, countries like France, Italy and Poland would have been central in a vote to get to the magic number of 35%. Huge issues remain with the so-called safeguards, with the chances of these being triggered in the future very slim.

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The power of Europe favouring big business over beef farming was always only going to have one outcome, with beef farmers up against it from day one. The expectation is that the deal will go through the final approval process on 19-20 November in Brazil, with Ursula von der Leyen flying to Brazil to conclude the deal.

The only hope now is that the deal gets blocked at the vote in the European Parliament.