Oil prices fell to their lowest point in two weeks yesterday, on the back of a report suggesting that the USA and Iran were coming closer to an agreement.
Even if a deal is brokered, the long-term ramifications of the two-month conflict will be felt for some time. While there is little concern around fertiliser supplies for the rest of 2026, there is a growing concern around availability for 2027 and beyond.
Ironically, the introduction of CBAM in early 2026 went in some way to making sure that sufficient supplies were imported ahead of the 2026 season.
We are still a long way out from the 2027 season, but given the uncertainty in the market, it places importers in a difficult position in planning ahead.
As Lorcan Roche-Kelly reports on p24-25, India, a huge fertiliser user, has been sourcing large amounts of urea from north Africa – driving up urea prices on international markets. While government supports can go some way to alleviating the burden on farmers in relation to higher input costs, they are unable to affect underlying market dynamics borne out by basic supply and demand.
Lower output prices in 2026 also compound the problem, with beef prices now back almost €1/kg behind where they were in 2025 and milk prices also back 12c/l.
This makes dealing with increased costs a lot more difficult on farms. While the fuel support scheme is welcome and will go some way to helping farmers and contractors offset some of the increased cost of diesel, more support will be needed as we deal with the fallout of the war for years to come.
Oil prices fell to their lowest point in two weeks yesterday, on the back of a report suggesting that the USA and Iran were coming closer to an agreement.
Even if a deal is brokered, the long-term ramifications of the two-month conflict will be felt for some time. While there is little concern around fertiliser supplies for the rest of 2026, there is a growing concern around availability for 2027 and beyond.
Ironically, the introduction of CBAM in early 2026 went in some way to making sure that sufficient supplies were imported ahead of the 2026 season.
We are still a long way out from the 2027 season, but given the uncertainty in the market, it places importers in a difficult position in planning ahead.
As Lorcan Roche-Kelly reports on p24-25, India, a huge fertiliser user, has been sourcing large amounts of urea from north Africa – driving up urea prices on international markets. While government supports can go some way to alleviating the burden on farmers in relation to higher input costs, they are unable to affect underlying market dynamics borne out by basic supply and demand.
Lower output prices in 2026 also compound the problem, with beef prices now back almost €1/kg behind where they were in 2025 and milk prices also back 12c/l.
This makes dealing with increased costs a lot more difficult on farms. While the fuel support scheme is welcome and will go some way to helping farmers and contractors offset some of the increased cost of diesel, more support will be needed as we deal with the fallout of the war for years to come.
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