They say one swallow doesn’t make a summer, and the same can be said for the winter finishing business. The 2024/2025 winter finishing period was the first in as far as I can remember where finishers made decent margins on animals.
Some will argue that it went back out the gate in replacing those animals in the autumn of 2025, but the lift in prices in the spring of 2025 restored some confidence into finishing yards that were getting smaller and smaller in number.
The 2025 beef price peaked at just over €8/kg in April, where somewhere north of €6/kg was the breakeven price for cattle finishers that year.
How quickly those tables have turned. Based on autumn store prices and finishing budgets, that €6/kg breakeven price for last year has turned into €8.50/kg this year.
With beef quotes heading for €7/kg and sheds full with €2,700/head store bullocks, you can see why winter finishers are getting a little nervous about the market.
The level of investment in purchasing cattle is huge and, depending on where the beef price ends up in spring, there could be some serious losses incurred in the next few months.
Factories have washed their hands of any responsibility in this regard, with no direction being given on purchasing plans or forward beef price.
Factories have again protected their margin using farmers to hedge against any move in beef price, with farmers with hundreds of thousands of euro invested left carrying the can.
The only solace in the winter finishing debacle is that finished numbers are expected to tighten further once we get past the end of January 2026.
Across the world, beef production is stagnating with the UK and Europe, two of Ireland’s largest markets, seeing some of the biggest contractions which should bode well for Irish finishers.
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