Budget 2026 is best described as one with no surprises – and no major shocks either.

Tillage farmers will be disappointed with their allocation of just €30m in a true support payment – the remaining €20m was already accounted for in the existing protein aid and straw incorporation schemes.

Farm organisations had lobbied hard for additional support in a year when tillage farm incomes were left behind other sectors, seeking twice what they received on Tuesday. Tillage incomes are under real pressure, and the ever-growing demand for land, driven by uncertainty around the nitrates derogation, is pushing rental costs higher.

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The real effect of Minister Heydon’s decision to pay out €30m instead of €60m in tillage supports will not be seen this autumn, but next spring. Tillage acreage has been falling, and without solid support this is set to continue. Not alone will this hit tillage farmers as individuals, but it will restrict Ireland’s ability to reach its legally-binding climate targets. And not hitting those targets will put the squeeze on livestock farmers too.

Securing funding for the rollover of livestock schemes is positive. So too is the roll-over of key agricultural tax reliefs and the certainty provided by extending the young, trained farmers and restructuring stamp duty reliefs by the maximum possible term.

However, it’s a missed opportunity that more recommendations from the Commission on Generational Renewal in Farming were not activated in this budget. Generational renewal in the sector won’t improve quickly without direct and decisive action.

Extending agricultural reliefs beyond children and favourite nephews to grandchildren could have been a budget instrument to make a step-change in the age profile of farming.

With the budget day opportunity now gone, the onus is on the minister to tackle farm succession long before the next CAP programme. Knowing that the commission has recommended a €25,000 exit payment and a €25,000 installation aid, many farm families are very likely to wait until 2028 to avail of those proposed potential incentives.

While that might be a sound and canny financial decision for individual families, it would put generational renewal on ice until 2028 and be a disaster for the industry as a whole.

But there’s a bigger elephant in the room for Minister Heydon. TB funding has been increased by €85m to €157m for next year – a move that generates very conflicted feelings.

On the one hand, it’s positive to see the Government recognise the need to fund the new TB eradication programme. The disease has a devastating financial and emotional toll on thousands of farm families every year. But there’s deep disappointment that this €85m is not being used for positive, proactive and energising initiatives in the agriculture industry. The disease is soaking up half of the additional €170m allocated to agriculture in this year’s budget.

TB costs have risen exponentially in the last six years. In 2019, the Department of Agriculture spend on TB (excluding staff costs) was €37.5m. This year that figure is set to be more than triple that, at €130m.

Add in the costs to the farmer, estimated by the IFA-commissioned Ifac study at €150m and TB is set to cost farmers and the Department at least €280m in 2025.

That’s the equivalent of 10 National Beef Welfare Schemes.

Yet despite this funding, the incidence of TB continues to grow. Herd incidence has almost doubled from 3.72% to 6.4% in the same period.

Feeding more and more money into the TB programme without seeing any improvement is demoralising.

Real results are needed and a concerted effort by all stakeholders to root out TB is essential.

Without it, the minister will be back again next year, cap in hand, seeking more money from the Minister for Finance to feed the TB monster – at the expense of real and positive initiatives for the sector.

Nobody wants to throw good money after bad.