After a year-long probe, China announced a new quota and tariff regime on the final day of 2025, which came into force from the first of January.

These tariffs will not have come as a major surprise to the countries affected, but clearly one country is due to suffer far more than all the others – Brazil.

Brazil is the juggernaut of beef exports globally, scaling up their herd and beginning to intensify some of the finishing of animals to meet an anticipated higher demand for animal protein in developing markets, particularly in Asia. China has had a huge appetite for Brazilian beef over the past few years.

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Pricing

From January to November of 2025, China imported 1.3m tonnes of Brazilian beef. The pricing is too attractive for Chinese buyers.

Brazilian beef landed in China and cleared through the ports is still cheaper than the production cost of Chinese beef, before any margins are added.

The new three-year quota programme seeks to limit the total amount of imported beef coming into the market, with quotas attached to each key market. Brazil crucially will be limited to 1.106m tonnes with an incremental increase over the coming three years.

Argentina has a generous quota, while Australia, New Zealand and the US are capped at their normal levels. Ireland is included in the 170,000t of ‘others’.

The news of the quotas and a 55% tariff was met at first with strong enthusiasm from the domestic industry. However, these quotas and associated tariffs are in many ways reflective of a new reality in China.

Beef consumption is not growing as consistently as it had been from its low base (per person consumption still is only between 5-6kg per person per annum) and the aging, slowing population combined with slow consumer confidence spells trouble for beef’s prospects.

Domestic producers are now faced with some tough choices. Herd numbers have fallen, particularly as breeding cows have been culled. Will producers hold onto more heifers hoping for better prices?

Some producers are less than optimistic. Mr Hao, a farmer in northeastern China said that even with 200,000-300,000 fewer tonnes of beef in the market, demand is soft and there are plenty of stockpiles of cheap beef available.

Mr Zhu, who has a Wagyu farm and is an online influencer, spoke to me about how the tariffs will drive smuggling and other methods to avoid prosecution.

Indeed, China’s southwestern province has a long history and reputation of cattle smuggling, at volumes that make our own border shenanigans look like child’s play.

An industry study in 2019 suggested that 10,000 head per day were being moved over the border. While this has dropped off and been replaced with Brazilian beef, there is a steady flow of cattle from the subcontinent ending up in Chinese homes.

The news of these quotas will create a new reality for the expansionary business practices in Brazil as the politics of beef will continue to plough on.

For Chinese farmers, at least there is some respite from Brazilian’s incredible cost advantages.