Growers hope that the current weather drivers will continue to affect global grain markets and shift the price sentiment to optimistic. While these drivers are real, the problem is still not an actual one, as production could be higher elsewhere. But price trend is an important signal.

While it seems inevitable that the US will produce less wheat in 2018, the greater scope for optimism comes from maize. The problems in Argentina and Brazil, in particular, are a cause for production concern for next harvest.

Delayed maize planting in parts of Brazil, where wet delayed soya bean harvesting, and drought in Argentina may reduce the intended planted areas and decrease potential yield. These are big producers and exporters, but we could still see increased production potential in other countries to offset those losses.

Soya bean and soya meal prices have also increased in recent weeks as a result of the same problems in Brazil and Argentina.

However, native physical prices remain broadly similar, with the main buyers holding off on purchases until they really have to. Nearby wheat remains in the €175 to €177/t bracket, with barley either side of €180/t. Higher imported maize prices may now help the demand for native wheat, which has been quite slow.

November prices were stronger last weekend, but are now probably back around €172 to €175/t for wheat and €170/t for barley.