With a change of Taoiseach only a month away, speculation is growing as to how much of a cabinet reshuffle will ensue. For farmers the main question is, could Charlie McConalogue be on the move? The short answer is maybe.

The logistics of any significant reshuffle are complicated. It’s actually easier to list the couple of things we know for sure. Firstly, Leo Varadkar will become Taoiseach by agreement on 17 December. Secondly, Micheál Martin will thus require a cabinet portfolio. Thirdly, Michael McGrath and Paschal Donohoe will swap their linked portfolios, with McGrath moving into Finance, and Donohoe into Public Expenditure and Reform. Finally, the Green Party members ain’t moving. After that, we’re guessing.

If there is a change in Agriculture House, it is because Fine Gael wants the portfolio. It has to be concerned at the steady reduction in support expressed for them by farmers in opinion polls.

A recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll saw it six points behind Fianna Fáil among farmers with only 32% support. There is talk of Simon Coveney returning to Agriculture, with Micheál Martin taking over at Foreign Affairs.

The only other possible contender among Fine Gael’s ministerial roster is Heather Humphreys. There would be some logic to this, as it would leave the Rural Affairs ministry open to Fianna Fáil.

A further complicating factor is where the senior minister changes party, a switch of minister of state will also be triggered. Why? In this coalition, there is a balancing offset that where there is a Fianna Fáil senior minister, the junior minister is from Fine Gael’s ranks. So if McConalogue moves, Martin Heydon will too.

If there is a large reshuffle, McConalogue may well get a significant cabinet posting. While his electoral prospects in Donegal have been affected by the MICA controversy, he is held in high standing within Fianna Fáil.

He previously was Education spokesman, and was Minister of State in Law Reform in the early days of this administration. He could find well himself in Education.

Then there is the need to find a caretaker within cabinet for the Justice portfolio.

Helen McEntee’s maternity leave is expected to commence later this month, and another Minister will take over her responsibilities in her absence.

Heather Humphreys assumed the Justice portfolio last time. Could Charlie McConalogue hold Rural Affairs and Justice (temporarily) this time?

Will there be any promotions? Chief whip Jack Chambers is being tipped, with speculation that Health Minister Stephen Donnelly could lose his place at cabinet. As one Fianna Fáiler quipped, “the blow-in might be blown out”. If that happens, and Martin Heydon is on the move, he could become the Government whip – he was previously Fine Gael party chair.

So, to summarise, Charlie might move out, Simon or Heather will move in if he does. Martin would then also need a new home, and every Kildare man knows how to use a whip.