The Irish Farmers Journalsat down with Bord Bia beef and livestock sector manager Joe Burke during the recent trade mission to Southeast Asia, to get his view on the outlook for Irish beef production and exports.

“Looking at domestic supply of cattle, it is clear that there is not going to be any increase in supply in the short to medium term,” Burke said, adding that “the dairy herd is mature, and may even shrink slightly in future due to changes such as nitrates rules. On the beef side, suckler cow numbers have dropped from over 1.1m a decade ago to 850,000 now”.

Burke points out that there were 30,000 fewer calves born this year than last. He said he sees a slow decline in the suckler herd, rather than a mass exodus.

He does remain confident about Ireland’s export markets, despite increasing challenges. Burke is sanguine about the UK market, saying that customers there will remain loyal to the high-quality Irish product they have become used to. He doesn’t completely dismiss the threat from post-Brexit trade deals with Australia and New Zealand, but is confident the UK market will remain a really important destination for Irish production.

Europe, which also takes a large share of Irish production, has been a challenging market this year as consumers tighten their belts and increasingly prefer domestic products. Again, Burke is confident the downturn for Irish exports is only a short-term slump and that market will recover.

Unlike Tyson and JBS, Ireland is not hugely reliant on Asian markets. Only 8% of Irish volume goes anywhere other than the UK and Europe.

Obviously, there was disappointment that access to the Chinese market has been lost, but the volume going there has been far from significant.