The Joint Research Centre (JRC) - the European Commission’s science and knowledge service - published a cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture last week.

It considers 10 agreements either recently concluded or in negotiation, as well as considering what the UK deals with Australia, New Zealand and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) might bring to the bloc.

Overall, EU agri-food exports are projected to increase by between 27% or €3.5bn in the conservative scenario and 38% or €4.8bn by 2032 in the ambitious scenario.

Total agri-food imports are forecast to increase by 2.7% or €3.1bn in the conservative scenario and 3.6% or €4.1bn in the ambitious scenario.

Import increases

Within these overall figures, there are winners and losers. Depending on which scenario, the assessment is that the EU will import between 81,000 and 91,000 tonnes more beef with the trade deals, the vast majority of which will come from Mercosur countries.

Sheepmeat imports are forecast to increase by either 3.5% or 4,000t in the conservative scenario and 5.3% or 6,000t in the ambitious scenario.

Poultry meat volumes are forecast to increase by either 209,000t (21.3%) or 274,000t (28.3%), depending on scenario.

Export opportunities

Dairy exports are forecast to benefit from the trade deals, with a 4.8% increase in export values or €780m forecast in the ambitious scenario.

Pigmeat exports are also forecast to increase, up 5.4% in value or €566m in the ambitious scenario and further 118,000t of pigmeat (carcase weight equivalent) exported.

Processed agri-food products, wine and beverages, including tobacco products, are also forecast to benefit from the trade deals in the assessment.