The AHDB meat outlook conference was held in London this week. Looking at the beef sector, Debbie Butcher from AHDB explained that, in 2015, prime cattle numbers slaughtered were down 2% to 1.92m, while cows were up 3% to 620,000.

An increase in carcase weights to an average of almost 350kg meant that the volume of beef produced was fractionally higher than 2014 at 883,000t. Added to increased imports from Ireland, the Netherlands and Poland, it meant that the British market was well supplied in 2015. This was reflected in farmgate prices which opened 2015 strongly at £3.64/kg (€4.85/kg at 75p = €1) but falling to £3.25/kg (€4.33/kg) by the end of May.

They then recovered over the summer getting back above £3.60/kg (€4.80/kg) by August, but have been falling since to £3.35/kg (€4.46) at the year end. Tight specifications on weight, age, residencies and standstill are becoming ever more the case in Britain as well as Ireland.

Cattle numbers in the system suggest that there will be an increase in the prime cattle kill of up to 4% in the second half of the year. Imports are also expected to grow by a few thousand tonnes, so Britain is looking like it will be well supplied, particularly in the second half of the year. It appears that the year-end cattle price of around €3.35/kg (€4.46/kg) could be as good as it gets, according to AHDB, unless there is an unexpected development in export markets.

For sheepmeat, AHDB analysist Mark Kozlowski explained that 2015 had been the worst year for lamb prices since 2009.

With the UK being a major exporter to the EU, the strength of sterling was a major cause of this loss of value, combined with the French protests against imports in the summer, which caused the loss or at least the reduction of French markets in the second half of the year. Production is forecast to increase in 2016, which will keep pressure on price.