The real winners of this Sunday’s potentially epic All-Ireland football semi-final between Dublin and Kerry will be Mayo.

Strange as it sounds, the westerners are sitting pretty in an All-Ireland final and whoever wins this weekend will be the strongest of favourites when it arrives. In many people’s minds, this Sunday is the real All-Ireland football final. That is crazy talk.

Mayo are in an ideal situation and their prospects would ironically improve if, for example, the Dubs were to look invincible beating the Kingdom. The only way to win a semi-final is ugly and Mayo are experts in that department, although that’s not a trait we associate with aristocrats like the Dubs and Kerry.

That’s why this day in Croke Park has so much to recommend it. We have been very lucky the past four or five weekends in terms of drama and quality – this game cries both. The pair have incredible history when they meet and to count championship classics between them would require more than two hands. They tend to deliver.

Most logic says that Dublin will win and they are worthy favourites, but the GAA voice in the back of my head is getting louder in recent days and she is whispering: “It’s set up for Kerry.” She could be right.

On first sight, the defending champions arrive in Croke Park with all guns blazing. Their ritual league final win over the same opposition was followed up with the annual stroll through Leinster before Donegal were dealt with in a manner that suggested the cobwebs were blown away.

Despite the losses of Rory O’Carroll and Johnny McCaffrey, Dublin’s defence has looked fairly solid this summer, although they have not faced the trickery of these Kerry forwards. If there is a fragility there, then the presence for a while of Kieran Donaghy in the full-forward position could expose that.

For those looking to pick holes in Dublin’s much-reported invincibility, the No 3 jersey is most mentioned. Unlike Donegal, Kerry will tend to get the ball in that area quickly, before a host of defenders are back to fill and crowd spaces. They might make hay.

That, however, is not where the game will be won and lost, because that always happens on the scoreboard. To beat the Dubs, Kerry have to hold them there first. They managed to do this during last year’s All-Ireland final. While we remember the poor conditions, it is also worth recalling that Dublin only scored 12 points. The Kingdom backs had done their job. Alas for them, only nine points was mined from their own forward line.

That defeat must rankle with the proud Kerrymen because they were exceptionally poor on the day from midfield on. David Moran and Anthony Maher might be the chosen pairing for Sunday, both will have to step up on what we have seen for them to date this year, with Moran in particular struggling to regain the form that pre-injury made him the standout midfielder in the country.

Where most, if not all, teams struggle to cope with the Dubs is the power football they play. They really can mix a couple of styles, their driving runs complemented by the subtle play-making skills a number of their forwards possess. No team creates as easily as them.

But they still have a hole in them. While three All-Irelands in six years is a wonderful stat, in none of those finals did they dominate. Against Donegal, Mayo and Kerry, they have looked eminently beatable on numerous occasions and have been. For a team often in the same discussion as the Kilkenny hurlers, the Dubs do not win like Kilkenny. Also, back-to-back All-Irelands seems to be a step too far. So far.

There is such talent in their ranks but the fuse sometimes doesn’t light, or in Diarmuid Connolly’s case, maybe it lights too easily. The sheer quality of the Blues’ forward line is intimidating but they have some bad habits at times – over elaboration being one of them, a failure to put decent teams away is another.

The Kingdom are that. While it remains to be seen if they will spring Gooch from the start for this contest, they will hope that James O’Donoghue has enough football in him to strike fear into the Dublin full-back line. Paul Geaney is a man that has quietly impressed all summer and he fits the Kerry pedigree of a player that suddenly announces himself on the biggest of stages. And this is certainly it.

Where Kerry folk worry is the capacity of their backs to stay with the power runners like Connolly and Kevin McManamon, and cope with the subtlety of players like Bernard Brogan and playmaker Ciaran Kilkenny. That is before the quality of Dublin’s bench is revealed. With a bench like that, Tipperary would probably have seen off Mayo at the weekend. Kerry’s has a balance to it as well, one of Marc Ó Sé/Aidan O’Mahony, one of Anthony Maher/Bryan Sheehan, the youth of Barry John Keane offering alternatives.

We’ll have a great game of football, it comes natural to both. Kerry have been waiting for this match since last September, this is the game they want. I’ve a gut feeling they will catch the Dubs. It’s what comes natural to them. CL