After achieving positive performance for much of the year, live exports of cattle to Italy experienced a slowdown throughout September and October. The falloff was caused by a combination of pressure on finished cattle prices and increased Irish weanling prices reducing the competitiveness of Irish exports.

The slowdown in exports has continued into November, with 417 cattle exported in the first week of the month followed by just 109 cattle in the week 10 to 16 November.

Exports in week two compare poorly to 418 cattle exported for the corresponding week in 2013.

Exports to Italy for the year to date are running at 28,645 head, an increase of 4,328 or 17.8% on the same period in 2013. However, comparing exports to date and up to the end of August shows the contraction in the market after a positive start, with exports in August running 6,114 head or 35% above previous year’s levels.

Market analysis carried out by Bord Bia shows U grade bulls in mid-November achieving an average carcase price of €3.91/kg, a decline of 50c/kg on November 2013 levels. In finished cattle terms, Charolais and continental cattle are reported as selling at €2.35/kg liveweight, with Limousin and Belgian Blues selling for €2.55/kg.

Current weanling bull prices are reported at €2.60/kg to €2.70/kg for continental and Charolais bulls, with Limousin and Belgian Blue bulls attracting a 10c/kg to 15c/kg premium.

The outlook is for the beef market to experience seasonal improvement, although this could be limited by the availability of cheap Polish beef which is continuing to enter the market.

Bord Bia market analysis points to the potential for increased competiveness of Irish exports should the Turkish market reopen strongly and insert more competition into the French weanling trade.

Libyan trade

Similar to Ireland, exports from Spain to Libya reduced in recent months following a period of political unrest in the country. According to Bord Bia market analysis, the Spanish live export trade was also affected by the closure of the Algerian market due to Foot and Mouth disease.

Higher exports of cattle to North African markets, particularly in the first half of the year, created opportunities for Irish exports, with Irish calves and weanlings replacing the void left by increased Spanish exports.

Live exports to Spain for the year to date are running at 44,067 head, an increase of 8,221 head or 23% on 2013 levels. Live exports of calves accounted for just over 38,000 of total exports.

Reduced cereal prices and greater optimism in the beef sector, albeit with a degree of caution, have increased total live imports into Spain with a 37.6% rise in the first six months of the year reaching 263,365 head.

If the current lift in optimism in the beef sector remains, along with continued higher exports to North African markets, it should lead to strong demand for live imports of calves in 2015.

There is currently greater confidence in live exports of Irish cattle to North African markets, but similar to Italy and Spain, the level of live exports will be influenced by the competitiveness of Irish cattle and the potential for exporters to achieve a margin.

For the year to date, live exports to Libya are running at 14,583 head, an increase of 2,582 head or 21.5% ahead of 2013 levels. Exports to Tunisia, at 2,883 head, are marginally above the same period in 2013 while Irish exports to Morocco have been limited by access to the market and are running 488 head behind 2013 levels at 753 head.