EPIC director Dominic Mellor specialises in the critical overlapping territory of animal and human health. He’s employed by Glasgow University but splits his time between EPIC – Scotland’s centre of expertise on animal disease outbreaks – and the NHS.

Professor Mellor grew up in the Midlands, where his father was a GP. They lived on a smallholding which was let for cattle and horses and was surrounded by farms. Holidays were spent in Wester Ross and he trained as a vet at Glasgow University, where he “fell in love with the city”.

After a spell in mixed veterinary practice, Dominic became curious about research and wended his way back to Glasgow, where there was the added advantage that he could play more rugby; he played for GHK – now Glasgow Hawks – before a knee injury at the Borders Sevens put paid to his career. He took on a clinical lectureship on farm animals and then embarked on research into E coli, “the nasty strain, which kills people,” Dominic tells me, collecting cow pats from farms and following finishing cattle into slaughter to understand how it gets into the food chain.

EPIC grew out of the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks of 2001 and 2007. “At that time Scottish Government had a lot to worry about and wanted scientific advice to support policy decisions,” says Dominic. “We have a formal relationship with Government to do science to inform Government decisions about where disease might spread and to mitigate the impact.”

There are no disease outbreaks in Scotland at present, but life is not quiet at EPIC. “There is lots of horizon-scanning,” Dominic explains. “We oscillate between bluetongue and avian flu, and African swine fever and lumpy skin disease, as well as wider issues such as climate change and vectors which might be moving around. We watch for FMD and classical swine fever all the time. We always need to be ready.”

EPIC’s website www.epicscotland.org maintains a graph which shows the potential and probable impact of these diseases in order to help it prioritise its work. “Bluetongue has low probability this year,” Dominic tells Farmers Journal Scotland. However, he says: “It’s pretty likely we’ll see avian flu this year, probably brought by migratory birds. We are dependent on getting the message to poultry keepers about being biosecure.”

Avian flu is classic zoonosis (an animal disease that can affect humans) terrain: there are industry concerns relating to trade but as Dominic reminds me, the disease can have a “profound impact on human health.”

Whereas we have experience of bluetongue and Avian flu in the UK, I ask how EPIC can create models for diseases which have not reached our borders. “You have to understand the progression of the virus within the host and its vectors,” Dominic explains. “We use the data of our production systems and look at the movement networks of, in this instance, pigs, and the effects of the climate, and construct a best hypothesis of how it might behave. You study outbreaks elsewhere.”

It is a difficult truth, however, that the best exercise is a real event. Dominic is matter-of-fact about the capabilities and limitations of science in this regard. “A model is called a model for a reason. It gives you an idea, but you can’t possibly capture the infinite variety of biology as it happens. But it’s better to be partially sighted than blind.”

Real-life events are still highly variable in their presentation, not least because of the seasonal nature of our livestock industry. EPIC is closely involved with Scoteid as, regardless of whether a disease is vector-borne, it is still most likely to be spread by animals. “People are still very surprised when we say we don’t know everything about FMD. People get very exercised about recreational access but we have very little information about how far FMD can be carried on footwear, though we can’t exactly replicate that in a study,” Dominic stresses.

Throughout our conversation Dominic emphasises Scotland’s ideal combination of scale, expertise and good professional relationships in animal health.

“We are lucky in Scotland that the Government and animal health departments work well.” Referring to EPIC, he maintains that “it’s really important that there exists an impartial, understanding group that can talk to the different parties”.

Dominic is clearly optimistic by nature and enthusiastic about his work; his chief concern is that while EPIC and its 40-strong, cross-institution research team is sufficiently funded, “I can be upbeat now but there’s no guarantee that I’ll be doing what I’m doing in a year’s time.”

When budgets are cut, professional dynamics can change too: “People compete harder and it is more difficult to remain collegiate. Because of short-termism we are in danger of trying to do a standalone project by March (the end of the current funding term), which doesn’t allow for strategic work.”

Ever-pragmatic, Professor Mellor would prefer to look for solutions to EPIC’s short-term funding situation: “It’s defeatist to say that it’s a sign of the times. We shouldn’t accept it. Instead, if it’s better to be longer-term, how do we get there?”

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EPIC is a consortium of Scotland’s leading animal research institutes, including Glasgow and Edinburgh Universities, James Hutton Institute, the Moredun Institute, SRUC and the Roslin Institute. A final member, BioSS, provides statistical and data analysis. Farming industry bodies such as NFUS and QMS are among stakeholders on EPIC’s knowledge transfer committee.