Thursday’s report is compiled on the basis of a “hard Brexit” with WTO tariffs applied, but with the UK still choosing to remain part of the customs union, which is questionable.

Using UN compiled data of traded products between the UK and the 27 individual EU member countries, over 5,000 products were traded which, outside a single market, would attract a range of tariffs on which the WTO scale would vary between 0% and 80%.

On the WTO scale, tariffs vary between products with agri produce at the top end of the scale. On red meat for example, the tariff is 12.8% of value, plus €3.03/kg. This means on a kilo of striploin steak worth currently €20/kg, a further €5.59/kg would be added at full WTO tariff, and in the process making Irish meat prohibitively expensive.

Greatest impact on Ireland

Overall, the report concluded that in percentage terms the impact of Brexit would be greater on Ireland than on any of the other EU countries.

The fact that it is the main market for over half our beef adds to the disproportionate effect

That is in spite of bigger economies like Germany and France doing a higher amount of trade in monetary terms. It is the fact that agri products, beef in particular, carry such a heavy WTO tariff compared with other sectors that means such a disproportionate impact on Ireland.

The fact that it is the main market for over half our beef adds to the disproportionate effect. Ireland supplies 5% of the UK’s imports from the EU, but in a WTO arrangement it would account for 20% of the total tariffs paid by the EU on product going into the UK.

EU exports to the UK

The report concluded that the EU’s exports to the UK would fall by 30%, representing a 2% reduction in its total world trade. Ireland and Belgium would be the most exposed, losing 4% and 3.1% respectively.

The report shows that EU trade with the UK for food products would be absolutely devastated in this ‘hard Brexit’ scenario

Meanwhile, the UK’s exports to the EU are calculated by the report to fall by 22% but as these reductions apply to 27 trading partners, the aggregate effect is larger than that of the EU with the UK facing a fall in its total trade of 9.8%.

Comment

Commenting on the report, IFA president, Joe Healy said: “The report shows that EU trade with the UK for food products would be absolutely devastated in this ‘hard Brexit’ scenario, with a reduction in trade of over 60% for dairy and 85% for meat products. Translating this to an Irish context, the value of meat exports to the UK could fall by €1.5bn, while the value of dairy exports could fall by over €600m.”

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