“I cannot forecast to you the actions of Russia, because Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. But perhaps there is a key: that key is Russia’s self-interest.” – Winston Churchill in a BBC radio broadcast, October 1939.

Judging by current European and American posturing in Ukraine, not much has changed or been learned over the last 75 years.

The pictures of 298 bodies, body parts, personal effects, and the plane wreckage strewn around the wheat and sunflower fields of eastern Ukraine, were designed to shock. But in this, the horrific pictures failed totally. In reality, the Malaysia Airlines tragedy amounted to little more than a one-day wonder. Even the tragic images from Ukraine failed to press European and American politicians into effective action.

For example, the EU and America’s first target for curtailing Russian exports was the luxury goods sector. The first Russian products targeted for sanctions were caviar and vodka; mink coats; white ermine; and gold, diamonds, pearls and other high-priced jewellery.

Meanwhile, German and Italian industries continue to be powered by cheap Russian oil and gas; the Netherlands continues to ramp up its burgeoning exports of food, breeding livestock, agricultural seeds and farm machinery to Russia; France will continue to deliver a fleet of Mistral warships; and London remains one giant money launderette for Russian oligarchs. Ireland, with exports to Russia of mainly food products worth €637m a year, could be a very small pawn in this global power game.

You may well ask, are EU policies on Ukraine now based more on the rules of Russian roulette than on anything else?

The reality

For centuries, the Russian and Ukrainian economies have been closely interlinked, but the economic advantage has always been with Russia. Currently, Russian trade accounts for 27% of Ukraine’s GDP – six times greater than what Ukrainian trade contributes to Russia’s GDP, ie, 4.5%.

Therefore, it is no surprise that the recent air tragedy in Ukraine caused barely a wobble in global stock markets, confirming that global markets have very short memories and no consciences. It’s not surprising that the weather had a bigger impact on the Russian and Ukrainian economies than the air tragedy or economic sanctions. Grain harvest forecasts continue to rise in both Russia and Ukraine, pulling down world market prices.

The grain harvests are now completed in some regions of Russia and Ukraine. Wheat yields and total production were well ahead of expectations. Planning for next year’s winter crops is already under way.

However, forecasts for plantings, yields and total production of all crops in Ukraine are very downbeat for 2015. This is due to a critical shortage of cashflow, farm credit, and confidence. As a result, Ukrainian farmers will not be able to buy good quality seeds, fertilzers, or plant protection chemicals.

However, very large international funds are now in-place for investment in grain storage, rail transport infrastructure and logistics right across Ukraine. International investors are particularly active in building grain silos, rail heads, and loading and shipping facilities at the Black Sea ports and around Odessa. This is not surprising as Ukraine is the fifth largest wheat exporter in the world and 50% of all Ukrainian wheat exports are shipped from Odessa.

Despite all the rhetoric coming out of Brussels and Washington, these investors are not European or American. They come from China, Japan and Korea.