Global grain markets took a big dip in the past week as the prospect of a record US maize crop creeps closer to reality. Price pressure spilled over on to wheat also and US Chicago December wheat fell below $4 per bushel. Global prices were further impacted by the prospects of increased exports from the Black Sea region.

Harvesting of US maize is set to begin in mid-September and there is a growing belief that a record crop could be realised.

Early harvest results will be monitored very closely, as Chicago December maize has already dipped below $3.20/bu (€112/t).

The most recent International Grains Council (IGC) report added 23 million tonnes to estimated global grain production since July – both wheat and maize were increased. All this additional grain would be surplus to estimated global demand. The IGC figure of 2,069m t is now 22m t higher than the previous production record.

Native prices have softened as imported forward maize dipped once again to the €170/t level. Recent spot deals on wheat have been as low as €155/t, but €158 to €160/t is more the norm. Spot barley is €8 to €10/t under wheat.

November wheat is either side of €162/t, ranging from €160 to €163/t and barley is about €10/t lower.

Projections for a big US soyabean crop have impacted on the full oil crop complex, but global oilseed rape supply is still expected to be tight. This may help push its prices above other competitors.