International grain markets continue to be pressurised by heavy supply sentiment and this is being reinforced by good performance from crops already harvested in parts of the world. Indeed, some forecasters believe that global maize production could be over 20Mt above current estimates as a result of good growing conditions.

The low global maize prices currently available in the global market have triggered the reinstatement of EU import levies on maize coming into the EU. This levy was set at zero for the past four years. Maize is the main downward driver of prices and the bearishness in prices is coming from the fact that key Northern Hemisphere producers, such as the US, China and Ukraine, are getting very good crop growth conditions this year. While these import tariffs do not put a floor on prices here, they may provide some degree of insulation for EU grain prices against the current low trend elsewhere.

The wheat harvest in the northern hemisphere continues to progress but recent rain is causing quality issues, with some wheat being downgraded from milling to feed. This exacerbates the problems in the feed market.

The market remains focused on strong production forecasts from around the globe, but there is little focus on how trade and demand will develop post-harvest. This could impact on demand and carryover in time.

With so little actual buying or selling taking place, grain prices are largely notional. This makes prices difficult to ascertain, but the trend is downwards from last week.

Spot wheat is somewhere either side of €185/t and barley is gone below €160/t. But in all instances these are notional values and a buyer or seller may force price higher or lower depending on circumstances. November wheat to the trade is put around €170/t and Glanbia offered this to its grower on Wednesday. Barley is put at €162-€163/t and Glanbia offered €162/t on Wednesday. Other buyers have offered €165/t for lots.