Grain prices continue to ebb and flow a bit, but are slightly stronger than this time last week. Prices had fallen further, but then rallied a bit earlier this week. Factors like the Black Sea concerns, drought, cold in some of the US corn growing areas, a potential reduction in US corn acres, etc, all act to support current prices.

But the underlying sentiment is for another big crop and weaker prices. This may not happen, but the current uncertainties are certainly driving fund interest and pressuring prices upwards. This sentiment could reverse at the drop of a pin.

Spot wheat prices tend to be in the €218 to €220/t range, but with more sellers than buyers in the market it is increasingly difficult to get €220/t. But this is still somewhat stronger than this time last week, while barley price is broadly similar in the €188 to €190/t range to the trade.

Native wheat stocks are now tightening and this will force more imports into the market in the coming weeks. New crop prices for November are also slightly stronger, with wheat again in the €198 to €200/t range and barley at €185 to €188/t. These prices are about €2/t up on last week, but down €5/t on a few weeks ago.

New crop maize has remained relatively flat on midweek prices and is in the €189 to €200/t range. However, it too has shown considerable price volatility in recent weeks.

Indeed, wheat and maize markets went in different directions for a while last week. This followed the publication of the most recent US stocks and planting intention reports. These suggested that US farmers would plant a smaller area of maize in 2014 and this, combined with tight, old crop stocks, provided support for maize prices.

Reports of rain on US drought stressed wheat, combined with reports of good prospects from the EU wheat crop, served to pressure wheat prices internationally.