Grain prices have moved upwards again since last week on the back of both political and weather developments. However, one must be of the view that the situation in Ukraine is the major factor

While weather issues are becoming increasingly real, the presence of large carryover stocks will still negate any of the current weather concerns for wheat. It will take big and real concerns for the corn crop to make weather a really serious issue in the medium- to long-term.

While there has been inadequate rainfall in many of the key winter wheat producing areas in the US, the delayed planting of maize in the Midwest due to the cold is of greater long-term consequence. But if investor sentiment changes, there is potential for significant downside to current prices.

The fact that US winter wheat areas missed out on the expected rain last weekend has provided support to Chicago wheat prices. There is also concern that areas of the central EU, such as Germany, Poland and Hungary, continue to experience dry weather conditions and these could, in time, make conditions less favourable for wheat.

Native spot wheat is trading from €218/t to €220/t, with barley at €190 to €192/t mid-week. Spot maize ex-port has dropped €1/t to trade at €196/t currently. New crop wheat is also firmer, with offers from €203 to €204/t now available, up considerably on last week. November barley is currently in the €190/t bracket. New crop maize is currently quoted at €197/t ex-port and this is the crop that is again receiving market interest for those forward buying.

On Wednesday of this week, Glanbia offered its growers €202 for dry wheat for November and €189/t for dried barley (up from €195 and €183/t respectively one week earlier). On the same day, Dairygold offered €153/t for green barley for harvest (€150/t a week earlier) and €165/t for green wheat.