Harvest pressure continues to be the major influence in grain markets. Weather has also been a big issue, with high temperature concerns in the US Midwest and poor weather hitting output estimates in some EU countries. Lower harvest yields here support reduced output estimates, but native supply matters little in terms of overall global market supply.

Poor weather in France hit winter barley production there and subsequent wet conditions appear to have hit the milling quality of wheat. There is a little upward drift in MATIF wheat price as a consequence, but, so far, this is small. This might increase if the French begin to dump feed wheat on the market to dispose of it, but they may be hoping for this rise before they begin to sell feed in case prices leave room for blending.

The big concern in the US in recent weeks was high temperatures impacting negatively on maize. However, this concern regarding heat stress during flowering appears to have passed. There is still concern that high late-July/August temperatures could impact on flowering in soyabeans and influence yield and price.

Old crop prices are now very much at the mercy of the market – removal date is the driver of discount. Spot wheat could be down to €155 to €158/t with barley €10/t under. And November prices are technically in the €158 to €160/t bracket for wheat, with barley again €10/t lower.

Glanbia offered €116/t for green barley earlier this week and €126/t for green wheat.