Grain markets continue to move in both directions, but the weight of supply remains the dominant factor, along with currency. Last week’s WASDE report indicated global maize output up 4.8Mt on last month to a record high 1,030.5Mt – 70.6Mt higher than last year. This is mainly driven by output in the US, Russia and Ukraine. Not surprisingly, these numbers negatively affected US maize futures prices.

The WASDE report also gave higher global end-of-season wheat stocks, which are up 8.2Mt on last year at 249.2Mt from an estimated 744.7Mt global wheat harvest.

Oilseed prices weakened a little on the back of news of a record US soya bean crop. However, Argentina is now expected to have its smallest soya bean area in five years due to delayed planting because of wet, plus the failure of government to fully remove export taxes on the crop.

Physical grain prices have possibly hardened in response to a lack of producers selling once again at current price levels. However, maize prices appear to be falling again, with the possibility of it displacing wheat in the market once more.

Lack of active demand also means that the spot market is now a discounted market to secure movement. Spot wheat is tending to be €163 to €165/t, with barley about €10/t lower. March/May prices tend to be around €165 to €170/t, depending on the hour of the day, with barley again €10/t under wheat. November 2017 wheat remains around €170/t.