European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development Phil Hogan has published an impact assessment outlining five possible shapes for the next CAP.

Most controversial and least likely is the second option of the five – to abandon the CAP altogether. That is not realistic, as recognised in the next sentence. The purpose of its inclusion as an alternative is to demonstrate the added value of the CAP.

Option one is to leave the CAP as it is except for simplifications already adopted or proposed, while option five is the most radical, suggesting a strong redistribution of support from large farms to smaller “environmentally friendly” ones with “short supply chains and local markets.” Neither of these is likely to find much favour with farmers, so it is likely that something between options three and four will be the preferred direction of travel.

Environment and climate change

The third option suggests member states or regions “programming CAP operations against EU priorities, based on identified needs. It enhances the focus on risk management and investments in restructuring and business development in agriculture and rural SMEs”. There is a strong environmental and climate change emphasis in this option as well.

Option four is focused on performance-based outcomes with a “redefinition of tasks between the EU, member state and farm business to enhance the income safety net with synergies between direct support (including area payments) and risk management”.

Publishing this along with the public consultation now open until 2 May gives some insight into the Commission’s thinking. It should also be read in the context of recent speeches given by the Commissioner from the Cork 2.0 conference on rural development, the Outlook conference in December and comments last week after the Council of Agricultural Ministers.

Speaking at the press conference on Thursday morning, Hogan said that an impact assessment will be drawn up in due course – with a view to finalising a communication, the Brussels equivalent of a white paper, on modernisation and simplification of the CAP in November 2017. The Commissioner added that he hopes to be in a position to frame a legislative proposal in 2018.

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