It is unfortunate that the timing of CAP reform announcements has coincided with so much negativity in my current farming setup. If lamb prices were buoyant, if beef quotes matched last year, and if grain wasn’t making the same price as 20 years ago, perhaps I could view the outcome a little more favourably.

As things stand, the most positive thing I can say is, thank goodness neither of my children have much interest in farming as a career, since it is hard to envisage this family farm generating a sustainable income in the longer term. The major decision on CAP reform in NI was to have a seven-year transition period to flat-rate payments. That means that each eligible hectare will be worth around €329 by 2021.

We also have big issues in NI over ‘‘active farmers’’. Landowners here are able to claim SFP at present, but from 2015 they have been told they must be actively farming to get this EU money. We now have landowners starting farming for the first time in 20 years. It has created problems for many farmers who are losing conacre land.

Like many farmers in NI, I am one of the losers under the new scheme. Year on year, my SFP money will drop and my best estimate is that in seven years’ time my ‘‘brown envelope’’ money will be down by 35% to 40%.

There will be winners under the new arrangement. These are likely to be sheep-only farmers, who arguably got a bit of a poor deal the last time round. If they aren’t too intensive, and have access to an extensive land area, some of them may see their SFP increase two or three-fold.

The heavy losers seem to be beef producers, with a medium-sized acreage, and possibly a large fattening enterprise on the farm. They racked up healthy historic payments and, as a result, the past 10 years have given them the chance to continue without much change. The cushioning effect of the annual payment undoubtedly provided a large degree of immunity from the realities of true profitability from beef production.

As farmers, we don’t make up the rules, but we have to adapt so that our individual businesses benefit from whatever system is in place. The previous SFP format, combined with a farm partnership that dated back to the fifties, meant that I received a decent payment, based on a fairly large acreage of rented land (over 500 acres).

Restructuring

After dissolving the partnership, and restructuring the business with much less emphasis on conacre, my share of the SFP was then loaded onto a much smaller area. It is important to point this out, since my assertion that I am being unfairly treated this time has to be balanced against the legitimate counter-argument that perhaps I was (to some extent) getting ‘‘something for nothing’’ these past few years.

No matter how it is viewed, nothing ever stays the same, and my cries of “it’s not fair” could be answered with the equally justifiable “life’s not fair: now get on with it”.

My gut feeling is that the cattle industry has been in a state of limbo since the introduction of the SFP. It has been well documented that the net margin across the board for any form of beef production has not been truly sustainable.

By ‘‘sustainable’’, I refer to an average family earning a decent standard of living solely from this type of agriculture. Therefore, the current pessimism on many beef farms may signal some sort of seismic change in that sector of industry over the coming decade or so.

We would do well to remember what happened to small-scale pig, poultry, and vegetable production, and I wonder if something similar will befall our herds of cattle? I would separate the whole dairy industry from my thoughts on beef, since its future looks secure. The disciplined, regimented approach to all aspects of milk production seems to me to be the complete opposite of most facets of the beef world. In this part of NI, you would hardly find two farmers that could agree on best breeds, feeding systems, grass swards, or any other management decisions, so I am at a loss to think how we can progress with a single blueprint for driving the beef world forward.

But what about the growing world population, and the overall view that demand for what we grow will eventually outstrip supply, resulting in strong farmgate prices? Occasionally, I try to reassure myself with this type of thought, but keep returning to the thought that we have to survive the short-term pain to benefit from the long-term gain. Having just celebrated my 52nd birthday, I reckon I’ll eke out some sort of existence for the next few years. In reality, I wouldn’t dream of doing anything else.