Centre of the universe: Phil Hogan

The European Commissioner for Agriculture is at the centre of the process. The Commission writes the draft legislative proposal forming the starting point of negotiations – this will be published in the autumn. Hogan has influential Irish advisers with him in Brussels, such as cabinet member Tom Tynan.

The Council of agriculture ministers

All EU ministers must sign off on the CAP before it enters into force. Getting this volatile group to agree will be no mean feat – that was Simon Coveney’s job under the Irish presidency of the Council in 2013. Key players include Germany’s Christian Schmidt, France’s Stéphane Travert and Ireland’s Michael Creed.

Christian Schmidt

The German agriculture minister is likely to remain in place after Angel Merkel’s government is tipped to win yet another election in September. As Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany will be a heavyweight in the talks, with a close eye on the purse strings.

Stéphane Travert

The new agriculture minister in France, the EU’s largest agricultural producer, is a newcomer to farming circles. The former Socialist rose through the ranks rapidly thanks to his support for new French President Emmanuel Macron. Expect market-oriented policies and staunch defence of French farming interests.

Michael Creed

Barring a collapse of the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil agreement mid-way through the process, Irish interests will be defended by Michael Creed. There may be a silver lining in Brexit, helping him justify measures favourable to Irish agriculture.

The Agri MEPs

Since the Lisbon Treaty, new EU legislation including CAP must go through the European Parliament. Its Agriculture Committee, chaired by Polish MEP Czeslaw Siekierski, will have a lead role in this process. The Irish members of the Agri committee are Matt Carthy, Luke Ming Flanagan and Mairead McGuinness.

Brexit

The outcome of talks between British prime minister Theresa May and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will determine the size of the British hole in the European budget and its impact on CAP funding.

The farm organisations

Intense lobbying has already started, with COPA-COGECA the main conduit for EU-wide farm representation. Swedish farm leader Thomas Magnusson is the current chair. At the Irish level, IFA president Joe Healy is drawing from the expertise of chief economist Rowena Dwyer and rural development executive Gerry Gunning.

The environmental agenda

Nature conservation and climate advocacy groups will weigh in on the negotiations, as they have already shown in the public consultation phase. Large groups on the continent, such as Greenpeace and German NGOs, will be joined by Irish groups including Friends of the Earth.