While the political fallout continues in Westminster over the UK proposals for post-Brexit trade, Irish farmers will see much merit in a suggestion that maintains the current trading basis. There are a couple of major hurdles in the way of these proposals becoming a reality.

Big problems in Conservative Party

The first is whether the UK government can sustain this position that was agreed on Friday after an all-day cabinet meeting only for one of the ministers in charge of Brexit to resign within 48 hours. Politics is the ultimate numbers game and while the departure of David Davis in itself won’t make much difference, what will be watched in the coming days is will others, such as foreign secretary Boris Johnson, follow. There is also the issue with the backbench MPs and whether a direct leadership challenge will be triggered.

Breaking Brussels red line

If the prime minister manages to get all of this, then there is the issue with Brussels accepting what is a clear departure from the four freedoms principle. While it would be very suitable for Irish farmers if it was to be business as usual in trade of agricultural products and industrial goods, there is a big chance that the chief negotiator and his team will see it as a breaking of their red line. What is also clear as negotiations have progressed is that the EU has become reconciled to the departure of the UK and has shown no urgency; although perhaps that was difficult before now since the UK didn’t have a formal position.

UK ability to negotiate trade deals restricted

If the present UK proposal proved to become the outcome, one area to watch will be what trade deals the UK concludes. While the continued alignment of standards would mean no hormone beef or chlorine-washed chicken, deals could be negotiated for product that matches current EU standards.

That will be a difficult negotiation for the UK, as the US ambassador to the UK Woody Johnson indicated in a radio interview that a bilateral deal with the UK “was up in the air at this point”.

It was beef and chicken that was the major stumbling block in TTIP negotiations between the USA and EU which were bogged down even before the current US president pulled the plug on them when he took office.

The proposals that came out of the UK cabinet meeting on Friday would solve the issues of trade in agricultural products on the island of Ireland and even more importantly on the east-west link as well, giving continued access to the massive market in Britain. The UK prime minister now has to sell the proposal to both her own party and then the EU and there is no guarantee she can do either, never mind both.

If she doesn’t succeed, the worst case scenario of trading on WTO terms will be the ultimate backstop.