Dealing with the drought is one thing, dealing with a shortage of feed next winter is a different thing altogether. The fodder survey results suggest farmers are short on average 30% of their winter feed requirements. However, some farmers are a lot worse off than this and in nearly all cases they are eating into whatever stocks they have.
At this point and time it is impossible to see how there won’t be a shortage of feed. According to Teagasc, the current deficit is 2.25 million tonnes of dry matter (DM), even taking into account second cuts not harvested. But there’s a difference between a shortage and a crisis. We can manage a shortage. Preventing a crisis will involve forward planning and farmers helping each other out. Each of the following options will help to alleviate the overall situation.
Cull early not late
Looking at the dairy herd alone, with approximately 1.4 million dairy cows in the national herd, a 10% cull on 1 August will reduce this by 140,000 head. Each of these cows would eat around 2.3tDM between now and 1 January, which would solve 14% of the deficit. Obviously, it’s not feasible to slaughter all these animals at once both from a logistical and marketing point of view, but it highlights the positive effect it would have on reducing demand.
These animals are going to be slaughtered anyway, it’s just that their slaughter date is being brought forward. This is likely to mean smaller carcases and smaller factory cheques, albeit with less feed costs incurred. Culling 10% of a herd increases the amount of feed available for the other animals by 2kgDM/head/day.
But does it pay to cull that 10% early? If half of the 2.3tDM a cow will eat between now and Christmas is silage, and the other half is meal then the costs of feeding that cow for the next five months is €496/head. Where grass is available the feed costs will be less. But in most cases that grass can be used to feed other animals ie, it’s not being wasted.
Let’s say a cow averages 14l/day between now and the end of November at an average milk price of 34c/l. That’s a milk income of €571/cow. So taking one from the other leaves a margin of just €75. This margin is much smaller than normal because the feed costs are a multiple of what they normally are. It is also just on the surplus cows as it assumes they are fed 100% on supplement.
Culling a proportion of the cows will mean that the feed costs are not incurred, but nor is the milk income earned.
The loss of milk income is offset by the sales value of the cow. What that value is will be hard to predict.
The big question mark over this policy is whether or not the market can handle it? We are already seeing signs of the trade for cows weakening significantly.
It’s important to remember that most farmers cull 20% of their cows every year anyway, it’s just that this year, they should try and cull sooner to get these cows out of the system and free up feed for more important stock.
Some are doing early pregnancy scans and culling off this, others are culling based on low fat and protein percentages.
Buy forage
Demand for any type of forage is extremely high and prices are at levels not seen before. Any type of round bale forage, whether it is silage, hay or straw is freely making between €30 and €35 per round bale. But there is a big difference in the feed value for each of these feeds.
On Greenfield Dairy Farm, farm manager David Fogerty has been forced to feed silage to the herd due to the on going drought and lack of grass growth. He and the team prepare a paddock by bringing in silage and roping it off before moving the herd in to graze. \ Philip Doyle
The best way to look at a feed is to compare it based on a cost per unit of energy basis. A round bale of hay might be cheaper than a round bale of silage but if there’s less feed value in it then it will feed less animals. An 800kg round bale of 65% DMD silage costing €35/bale is the equivalent of 20c per unit of energy (UFL). A 250kg round bale of hay costing €35/bale is 23c/UFL.
A round bale of straw costing €35/bale is 59c/UFL. A 20t/acre crop of maize silage at €1,000/acre is 21c/UFL. Fodder beet at €45/t is 21c/UFL. On the meal side, rolled barley costing €220/t is 22c/UFL, a ration costing €260/t is 28c/UFL while soya hulls costing €220/t is 24c/UFL.
Silage deals
Deals are being done at present for silage ground. This is where a less-intensive farmer who might have enough winter feed offers silage ground to a more intensive farmer that is short of winter feed. In most cases, the intensive farmer will spread the fertiliser and harvest the grass in the autumn.
How to value this ground?
Spreading three bags/acre of 24:2.5:10 will cost in the region of €53/acre. If the crop yields six bales per acre of silage, it will cost in the region of €63/acre for raking, baling, wrapping and plastic. Mowing will cost about €20/acre and transporting the bales will cost about €2.50/bale or €15/acre.
Total growing and harvesting costs at six bales per acre will be €151/acre. If we assume the rent of the field is €150/acre also, the total cost will be €300/acre.
At six bales per acre with each bale weighing 240kgDM on average, the cost will be 20.8c/kgDM. If 10 bales per acre are cut, the cost will be 14.5c/kgDM. If three bales per acre are cut, the cost will be 36c/kgDM. This shows that higher-yielding crops are cheaper per unit of feed. In terms of sourcing silage, I think this is a good option where available.
The main issues will be on the yield potential and harvest date. A later harvest date will increase the yield potential but the later it goes the greater the weather risks at harvest and reduces subsequent growth.
Forage crop
There is a lot of interest in forage crops this year. Some farmers are thinking of sowing hybrid rape (eg Gorilla, Redstart) on their own land, while others are looking to work with tillage farmers to sow it on stubble ground. From a national perspective, sowing on stubble ground is more attractive as it means forage will be grown this autumn on land not previously used for forage production.
Whereas sowing it in grassland will just offset forage production, effectively moving what grass is grown in autumn and spring to the winter.
The yield potential of hybrid rape is all down to the sowing date. If sown in early August the crop can expect to yield between 5-6tDM/ha by mid-November, assuming we get rain. Seed, sowing and fertiliser costs come in at about €150/acre.
If a land charge of €150/acre is applied then hybrid rape works out at about 13c/kgDM which is very good value. But this presumes the crop is being grazed in situ – not very likely if sown on a tillage farm. I’m told that cutting and baling forage rape is very tricky as it is very low dry matter. Zero grazing is an option, which will add about 7c/kgDM to the growing costs.
The other forage option which might be more attractive for both the livestock and tillage farmer is Italian Ryegrass or Westerwolds.
If sown in early August, they can be cut for silage or zero grazed twice – in November and again in mid-March before the field is sprayed off and put back to spring cereals. The costs of seed, sowing and fertiliser for these grass crops is around €170/t.
According to Dave Barry of Goldcrop, the crop should yield between 3.5 and 5tDM/ha if sown in early August and left to grow until March.
If a land charge of €150/acre is applied and a 4t/ha crop is grown the cost is around 20c/kgDM. If this is zero grazed, the costs will increase to around 27c/kgDM. One of the issues to avoid when grazing grass on tillage land is the grass going to seed. It shouldn’t be an issue but the grass should be cut prior to seeds heading out.
Wait for the bounce
Some of the farmers I speak to whom are short of winter feed are still content to sit it out in the expectation that a bounce in growth after the drought will fill the deficit.
At the Grassland Association walk on Tuesday, George Ramsbottom said: “Looking at Pasturebase grass growth figures for the past few years, if we grow only half of what we normally grow in August, but the same as normal for the rest of the year, we will have grown 4.5t/ha between now and the year end.
“A farm stocked at 2.5 cows/ha and feeding 3kg of meal per head per day will use up the 4.5t/ha, so there is no spare. However, if there is a bounce in growth, 5.5t/ha could be grown.”
When you deduct utilisation losses, this would leave an extra 320kgDM/cow for a farm stocked at 2.5 cows/ha which is more or less what the average shortfall is at present.
However, it’s a risky strategy because if the bounce in growth doesn’t come then you will be very short. Like with some of the other options, this strategy assumes that the extra growth can be converted to silage. It’s easy to think that now, but if the back end turns wet, then making silage will be difficult.
If 10% of the national dairy herd is culled in early August, the average fodder deficit reduces by 14%.Compare purchased feeds on a cost per unit of energy basis to see if you are getting value. If forage is available to buy at a reasonable price then buy it.Sowing hybrid rape or hybrid grass varieties on tillage ground is a really good option. Hybrid rape is a cheaper crop to grow but it should be grazed or zero grazed.
Dealing with the drought is one thing, dealing with a shortage of feed next winter is a different thing altogether. The fodder survey results suggest farmers are short on average 30% of their winter feed requirements. However, some farmers are a lot worse off than this and in nearly all cases they are eating into whatever stocks they have.
At this point and time it is impossible to see how there won’t be a shortage of feed. According to Teagasc, the current deficit is 2.25 million tonnes of dry matter (DM), even taking into account second cuts not harvested. But there’s a difference between a shortage and a crisis. We can manage a shortage. Preventing a crisis will involve forward planning and farmers helping each other out. Each of the following options will help to alleviate the overall situation.
Cull early not late
Looking at the dairy herd alone, with approximately 1.4 million dairy cows in the national herd, a 10% cull on 1 August will reduce this by 140,000 head. Each of these cows would eat around 2.3tDM between now and 1 January, which would solve 14% of the deficit. Obviously, it’s not feasible to slaughter all these animals at once both from a logistical and marketing point of view, but it highlights the positive effect it would have on reducing demand.
These animals are going to be slaughtered anyway, it’s just that their slaughter date is being brought forward. This is likely to mean smaller carcases and smaller factory cheques, albeit with less feed costs incurred. Culling 10% of a herd increases the amount of feed available for the other animals by 2kgDM/head/day.
But does it pay to cull that 10% early? If half of the 2.3tDM a cow will eat between now and Christmas is silage, and the other half is meal then the costs of feeding that cow for the next five months is €496/head. Where grass is available the feed costs will be less. But in most cases that grass can be used to feed other animals ie, it’s not being wasted.
Let’s say a cow averages 14l/day between now and the end of November at an average milk price of 34c/l. That’s a milk income of €571/cow. So taking one from the other leaves a margin of just €75. This margin is much smaller than normal because the feed costs are a multiple of what they normally are. It is also just on the surplus cows as it assumes they are fed 100% on supplement.
Culling a proportion of the cows will mean that the feed costs are not incurred, but nor is the milk income earned.
The loss of milk income is offset by the sales value of the cow. What that value is will be hard to predict.
The big question mark over this policy is whether or not the market can handle it? We are already seeing signs of the trade for cows weakening significantly.
It’s important to remember that most farmers cull 20% of their cows every year anyway, it’s just that this year, they should try and cull sooner to get these cows out of the system and free up feed for more important stock.
Some are doing early pregnancy scans and culling off this, others are culling based on low fat and protein percentages.
Buy forage
Demand for any type of forage is extremely high and prices are at levels not seen before. Any type of round bale forage, whether it is silage, hay or straw is freely making between €30 and €35 per round bale. But there is a big difference in the feed value for each of these feeds.
On Greenfield Dairy Farm, farm manager David Fogerty has been forced to feed silage to the herd due to the on going drought and lack of grass growth. He and the team prepare a paddock by bringing in silage and roping it off before moving the herd in to graze. \ Philip Doyle
The best way to look at a feed is to compare it based on a cost per unit of energy basis. A round bale of hay might be cheaper than a round bale of silage but if there’s less feed value in it then it will feed less animals. An 800kg round bale of 65% DMD silage costing €35/bale is the equivalent of 20c per unit of energy (UFL). A 250kg round bale of hay costing €35/bale is 23c/UFL.
A round bale of straw costing €35/bale is 59c/UFL. A 20t/acre crop of maize silage at €1,000/acre is 21c/UFL. Fodder beet at €45/t is 21c/UFL. On the meal side, rolled barley costing €220/t is 22c/UFL, a ration costing €260/t is 28c/UFL while soya hulls costing €220/t is 24c/UFL.
Silage deals
Deals are being done at present for silage ground. This is where a less-intensive farmer who might have enough winter feed offers silage ground to a more intensive farmer that is short of winter feed. In most cases, the intensive farmer will spread the fertiliser and harvest the grass in the autumn.
How to value this ground?
Spreading three bags/acre of 24:2.5:10 will cost in the region of €53/acre. If the crop yields six bales per acre of silage, it will cost in the region of €63/acre for raking, baling, wrapping and plastic. Mowing will cost about €20/acre and transporting the bales will cost about €2.50/bale or €15/acre.
Total growing and harvesting costs at six bales per acre will be €151/acre. If we assume the rent of the field is €150/acre also, the total cost will be €300/acre.
At six bales per acre with each bale weighing 240kgDM on average, the cost will be 20.8c/kgDM. If 10 bales per acre are cut, the cost will be 14.5c/kgDM. If three bales per acre are cut, the cost will be 36c/kgDM. This shows that higher-yielding crops are cheaper per unit of feed. In terms of sourcing silage, I think this is a good option where available.
The main issues will be on the yield potential and harvest date. A later harvest date will increase the yield potential but the later it goes the greater the weather risks at harvest and reduces subsequent growth.
Forage crop
There is a lot of interest in forage crops this year. Some farmers are thinking of sowing hybrid rape (eg Gorilla, Redstart) on their own land, while others are looking to work with tillage farmers to sow it on stubble ground. From a national perspective, sowing on stubble ground is more attractive as it means forage will be grown this autumn on land not previously used for forage production.
Whereas sowing it in grassland will just offset forage production, effectively moving what grass is grown in autumn and spring to the winter.
The yield potential of hybrid rape is all down to the sowing date. If sown in early August the crop can expect to yield between 5-6tDM/ha by mid-November, assuming we get rain. Seed, sowing and fertiliser costs come in at about €150/acre.
If a land charge of €150/acre is applied then hybrid rape works out at about 13c/kgDM which is very good value. But this presumes the crop is being grazed in situ – not very likely if sown on a tillage farm. I’m told that cutting and baling forage rape is very tricky as it is very low dry matter. Zero grazing is an option, which will add about 7c/kgDM to the growing costs.
The other forage option which might be more attractive for both the livestock and tillage farmer is Italian Ryegrass or Westerwolds.
If sown in early August, they can be cut for silage or zero grazed twice – in November and again in mid-March before the field is sprayed off and put back to spring cereals. The costs of seed, sowing and fertiliser for these grass crops is around €170/t.
According to Dave Barry of Goldcrop, the crop should yield between 3.5 and 5tDM/ha if sown in early August and left to grow until March.
If a land charge of €150/acre is applied and a 4t/ha crop is grown the cost is around 20c/kgDM. If this is zero grazed, the costs will increase to around 27c/kgDM. One of the issues to avoid when grazing grass on tillage land is the grass going to seed. It shouldn’t be an issue but the grass should be cut prior to seeds heading out.
Wait for the bounce
Some of the farmers I speak to whom are short of winter feed are still content to sit it out in the expectation that a bounce in growth after the drought will fill the deficit.
At the Grassland Association walk on Tuesday, George Ramsbottom said: “Looking at Pasturebase grass growth figures for the past few years, if we grow only half of what we normally grow in August, but the same as normal for the rest of the year, we will have grown 4.5t/ha between now and the year end.
“A farm stocked at 2.5 cows/ha and feeding 3kg of meal per head per day will use up the 4.5t/ha, so there is no spare. However, if there is a bounce in growth, 5.5t/ha could be grown.”
When you deduct utilisation losses, this would leave an extra 320kgDM/cow for a farm stocked at 2.5 cows/ha which is more or less what the average shortfall is at present.
However, it’s a risky strategy because if the bounce in growth doesn’t come then you will be very short. Like with some of the other options, this strategy assumes that the extra growth can be converted to silage. It’s easy to think that now, but if the back end turns wet, then making silage will be difficult.
If 10% of the national dairy herd is culled in early August, the average fodder deficit reduces by 14%.Compare purchased feeds on a cost per unit of energy basis to see if you are getting value. If forage is available to buy at a reasonable price then buy it.Sowing hybrid rape or hybrid grass varieties on tillage ground is a really good option. Hybrid rape is a cheaper crop to grow but it should be grazed or zero grazed. 
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