Factories are trying to quell any feeling that prices are on the rise. Last week, there was a definite eagerness by some agents to source numbers of finished lambs. Buying ahead of the bank holiday weekend could have been one significant driver.

This week the trade is looking a little more subdued, but some producers are securing prices on par with last week’s levels.

Most farmers are securing €4.70/kg, including bonuses. Some regular sellers are securing €4.75/kg. Farmers with large numbers of fleshed lambs available and producer groups have negotiated deals of €4.80/kg to €4.85/kg.

This shows the large variation in prices paid and the need to shop around.

Quotes have not changed much. The Only exception is Irish Country Meats, which is up 5c/kg at €4.55/kg (+10c QA). Kildare Chilling remains on €4.60/kg (+10c QA), while Kepak is quoting €4.65/kg (+5c QA).

Lamb supplies

Over the next few months, the prospect of strengthening prices looks positive, but, as always, is not certain.

Reduced lamb supplies around the world should help to bolster the trade.

In the UK, lamb production is estimated to be down by up to one million head this year due to difficult weather during the height of the lambing period which drove up mortality rates.

Total sheep and lamb slaughterings for January to September 2018 in the UK are running 3.64% behind the same period in 2017. No figures have been collated for spring-born Irish lambs, which also suggests significant domestic losses this spring, which could leave supplies tighter at home.

Severe drought in parts of Australia has also negatively impacted the supply of lamb for export this year. Conditions have not improved much and new-season lamb from Australian drought-stricken states is expected to come on the market under-finished.

Prices in Australia have hit record heights of $8/kg (€4.98/kg) carcase weight this year.

Past price trends also point to an improved market for the backend of the year. In early November last year, base prices were at €4.65/kg in the main export plants.

By mid–December base quotes crept up to €4.85/kg excluding bonuses. A similar trend is not guaranteed this year, but history usually has a way of repeating itself.

North

Factories in the south have been more competitive than their Northern Ireland (NI) counterparts in securing supplies of NI lambs for most of the year, with supply shortages for filling export contracts being the main factor.

Figures show that NI sheep have made up 14% of the total Republic of Ireland sheep kill in 2018 to date. NI factories are quoting £3.75 to £3.80/kg (€4.49/kg to €4.54/kg including 5.4% VAT).

Read more

Sheepwatch: sharper trade for finished lambs

Northern view: higher cattle supplies keep beef prices steady