The US Department for Agriculture (USDA) is increasing forecasts for world wheat production after higher Chinese production than previously thought. This is despite other countries reporting less wheat harvested than previous estimates.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published new information which resulted in USDA stating that total world wheat production is revised up by 2.6m tonnes in 2018/2019. Australian production is less than thought with 17.5m tonnes down 1m tonnes.

The trade row with China is seeing a sharp decline in US soya heading to the world’s most populous nation. As a result South American soya producers are likely to benefit from the fall out. US soya in turn looks to go to the gaps in the market in the rest of the world. The USDA estimate for world soya bean production this year has dropped by 2m tonnes to 368m tonnes. The US and Argentina look to have smaller crops than thought whilst China, India and Ukraine have larger.