Market trends and trade agreements are expected to support beef, lamb, pork and poultry prices this year, although Brexit could prevent Irish farmers from benefiting, presentations at Bord Bia's meat marketing in Naas, Co Kildare, showed on Friday.
EU trade deals with Japan and Vietnam will enter into force in 2019, and another is being finalised with Mexico, Department of Agriculture assistant secretary Sinead McPhilips told representatives from livestock farmers and meat processors.
The three agreements offer bright prospects for meat exports.
"Mercosur raises its ugly head form time to time, but it is currently on hold with no new rounds of negotiations scheduled," McPhilips added. This is all "very good news for Irish exporters".
Following this year's oversupply driven by additional slaughterings in poor weather conditions across Europe, beef supply is forecast to go back to normal.
After a 3% increase representing 51,000 extra cattle last year, Bord Bia's livestock manager Joe Burke said the kill should stabilise this year.
"We expect to see a small decline in cattle throughput of 20,000 to 40,000 head," he said.
Joe Burke - Bord Bia.
AIMS data on 1 November showed that the number of male cattle under 24 months was lower than the previous year, while there were also fewer heifers under 12 months – but more heifers between 12 and 24 months. As a result, "we are going to see high numbers of animals slaughtered still in the early spring, before entering a period of relative scarcity," Burke said.
Across the EU, beef supply increased by 1.7% last year, but is now predicted to fall by the same amount this year, returning to 2017 levels.
On the demand side, Bord Bia's beef sector manager Mark Zieg said EU beef consumption increased by 1.4% in 2018. While the European Commission forecasts a slight 0.2% decline this year, he said this is conservative.
Germany and France and expected to grow their beef imports by 3% or more this year. A slight decline of 1% is forecast for the UK. All three major players are expected to export less this year.
Bord Bia - Mark Zieg.
Beef demand growth is stronger outside Europe, Zieg said, with 10% forecast in China alone. So far, 1,000t of Irish beef has made it to China since the market opened last April.
Brazil is expected to increase exports by 4.7% to match international demand, but Australian exports should be down 7%.
"Argentina is the one to watch," Zieg said, with a 15% jump in exports forecast. "They are targeting Europe."
There is also an "absolutely phenomenal growth in Chinese demand" for sheepmeat, said Bord Bia's sheep sector manager Declan Fennell, with a 31.6% increase in volumes imported and 19% in value. Most of this came from Australia and New Zealand.
In Ireland, "hogget supplies will be back, but it is difficult to get an exact figure until we have the sheep census," said Fennell. He expects the overall national flock to remain stable or see a small decline. Tight supplies should therefore maintain the recent high prices for the time being.
There is major uncertainty on the impact of Brexit and the reallocation of New Zealand's quota between the EU and the UK, and the destination of the UK's domestic production. There could be good or bad for Ireland here.
Aside from Brexit, Fennell pointed out two risks for sheep prices:
Skin prices have been poor due to environmental constraints showing the Chinese processing industry to consolidate. "This is a huge pressure point on the fifth quarter, and especially one to watch in 2019," he said, with a risk that prices may not cover the cost of disposing of skins.While Ireland faced difficulties in supplying the French market during in poor weather conditions in the first 10 months of 2018 (-12%), Spain ramped up its presence in the French market (+60%). Spanish competition is a threat. "For 2019, we anticipate supplies will stabilise," said Bord Bia's pig and poultry sector manager Peter Duggan, after a 3% rise in Irish production last year leaving current prices on the floor. The number of breeding sows was down 1.3% across the EU in June compared with the same month in 2017, and the fall had accelerated to 4% in Germany by November.
African swine fever (ASF) will continue to reshape the Chinese pig industry, with 600,000 animals culled in four months. Movement restrictions and earlier slaughterings are also putting the brakes on Chinese supply and the country is expected to import record quantities of pigmeat this year, though mostly in the second half.
"The EU should be the main winner," said Duggan – provided ASF does not spread to Europe.
Ireland's poultry throughput as up 3% last year with 99m birds, and domestic consumption grew even faster at 4%. Supply and demand is forecast to continue growing on all major markets this year, with Brazil, the US, the UK and Poland all increasing output.
Duggan expects Chinese demand to grow as confidence returns among consumers following bird flu scares in recent years and some switch away from pork because of ASF.
Stay tuned for more on Brexit prospects for the meat industry later this Friday.
Market trends and trade agreements are expected to support beef, lamb, pork and poultry prices this year, although Brexit could prevent Irish farmers from benefiting, presentations at Bord Bia's meat marketing in Naas, Co Kildare, showed on Friday.
EU trade deals with Japan and Vietnam will enter into force in 2019, and another is being finalised with Mexico, Department of Agriculture assistant secretary Sinead McPhilips told representatives from livestock farmers and meat processors.
The three agreements offer bright prospects for meat exports.
"Mercosur raises its ugly head form time to time, but it is currently on hold with no new rounds of negotiations scheduled," McPhilips added. This is all "very good news for Irish exporters".
Following this year's oversupply driven by additional slaughterings in poor weather conditions across Europe, beef supply is forecast to go back to normal.
After a 3% increase representing 51,000 extra cattle last year, Bord Bia's livestock manager Joe Burke said the kill should stabilise this year.
"We expect to see a small decline in cattle throughput of 20,000 to 40,000 head," he said.
Joe Burke - Bord Bia.
AIMS data on 1 November showed that the number of male cattle under 24 months was lower than the previous year, while there were also fewer heifers under 12 months – but more heifers between 12 and 24 months. As a result, "we are going to see high numbers of animals slaughtered still in the early spring, before entering a period of relative scarcity," Burke said.
Across the EU, beef supply increased by 1.7% last year, but is now predicted to fall by the same amount this year, returning to 2017 levels.
On the demand side, Bord Bia's beef sector manager Mark Zieg said EU beef consumption increased by 1.4% in 2018. While the European Commission forecasts a slight 0.2% decline this year, he said this is conservative.
Germany and France and expected to grow their beef imports by 3% or more this year. A slight decline of 1% is forecast for the UK. All three major players are expected to export less this year.
Bord Bia - Mark Zieg.
Beef demand growth is stronger outside Europe, Zieg said, with 10% forecast in China alone. So far, 1,000t of Irish beef has made it to China since the market opened last April.
Brazil is expected to increase exports by 4.7% to match international demand, but Australian exports should be down 7%.
"Argentina is the one to watch," Zieg said, with a 15% jump in exports forecast. "They are targeting Europe."
There is also an "absolutely phenomenal growth in Chinese demand" for sheepmeat, said Bord Bia's sheep sector manager Declan Fennell, with a 31.6% increase in volumes imported and 19% in value. Most of this came from Australia and New Zealand.
In Ireland, "hogget supplies will be back, but it is difficult to get an exact figure until we have the sheep census," said Fennell. He expects the overall national flock to remain stable or see a small decline. Tight supplies should therefore maintain the recent high prices for the time being.
There is major uncertainty on the impact of Brexit and the reallocation of New Zealand's quota between the EU and the UK, and the destination of the UK's domestic production. There could be good or bad for Ireland here.
Aside from Brexit, Fennell pointed out two risks for sheep prices:
Skin prices have been poor due to environmental constraints showing the Chinese processing industry to consolidate. "This is a huge pressure point on the fifth quarter, and especially one to watch in 2019," he said, with a risk that prices may not cover the cost of disposing of skins.While Ireland faced difficulties in supplying the French market during in poor weather conditions in the first 10 months of 2018 (-12%), Spain ramped up its presence in the French market (+60%). Spanish competition is a threat. "For 2019, we anticipate supplies will stabilise," said Bord Bia's pig and poultry sector manager Peter Duggan, after a 3% rise in Irish production last year leaving current prices on the floor. The number of breeding sows was down 1.3% across the EU in June compared with the same month in 2017, and the fall had accelerated to 4% in Germany by November.
African swine fever (ASF) will continue to reshape the Chinese pig industry, with 600,000 animals culled in four months. Movement restrictions and earlier slaughterings are also putting the brakes on Chinese supply and the country is expected to import record quantities of pigmeat this year, though mostly in the second half.
"The EU should be the main winner," said Duggan – provided ASF does not spread to Europe.
Ireland's poultry throughput as up 3% last year with 99m birds, and domestic consumption grew even faster at 4%. Supply and demand is forecast to continue growing on all major markets this year, with Brazil, the US, the UK and Poland all increasing output.
Duggan expects Chinese demand to grow as confidence returns among consumers following bird flu scares in recent years and some switch away from pork because of ASF.
Stay tuned for more on Brexit prospects for the meat industry later this Friday.
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